Ohio seems to be a very tight races that’s probably pure tossup right now with a very high chance of voting for Trump while Biden easily takes the overall race. For decades Ohio has been the state both parties look to but that appears to be coming to an end. Ohio has steadily lost its political capital through the decades as it continues to shed EVs.
What is going to take its place? My pick would be one of the Sun Belt states, namely Arizona or maybe Texas within a cycle or 2. These states cover a the country’s changing demographics while also representing the massive voting divide between urban and rural America (Maricopa in AZ vs the rest of the state and The Dallas/Houston/Austin/SA metros vs rural Texas vs suburban Texas)
Texas maybe, since it’s 38 electoral votes is huge, but I disagree with AZ; I think it’ll zoom to the left too fast sorta like VA and CO, which never received a bellwether status. I think FL will be pretty close in the coming cycles and isn’t trending either direction, same with NC, so maybe those 2, though FL more so since it’s more infamous. If PA suburban growth stalls it’s rural trends, then PA could be up there too.
