538 senate model now out

[ProgressiveModerate]

Incumbency is weighted too heavily. after that, the model seems pretty fair and decent though. I like how they actually have a map. Partisanship should be weighted more. Part of the reason why Jones chances in AL are so high in the Deluxe model is because the "experts" tend to be very cautious about calling flips (most of them still say CO is tossup!)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Far too heavily weighted for incumbents.

A lot of that is because when they weight expert ratings (who generally are cautious about calling flips) it gives incumbents huge advantages, especially in races where the challenger is a clear favorite to win based off all other available data.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hmm, yes, the "being down 18 points in the polls make you more likely to win" take from the 538 classic model here:



The other two models also show (less dramatic) swings towards Jones. I'm dumbfounded at what they're seeing that's good news for him here. This is literally the worst poll for Jones so far this cycle.

But muh fundementals. When you think about it, that -18% poll is good for him because he greatly outperformed AL's PVI's last cycle, and as we know from 2018, incumbency is the end all be all.