2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh I feel like there was dead silence from the Washington commission other than those 4 proposed draft maps and now it's already time to decide.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

Are you lowering expectations for 2022 pre-emptively just to ensure there is a 0% chance you're going to be disappointed?

I’m being realistic.  I’m expecting about an R+7 national popular vote which means that Dems probably lose most districts where Biden got less than 55%.

Your way too confident in that. R + 7 is a reasonable overall projection, but there’s also a chance it could be R + 10 or R + 4. If it’s on the better end of the potential outcome, an incumbent in a Biden + 8ish seat def has a chance

[ProgressiveModerate]

This has just been awful. There was so little transparency I didn’t realize they were voting on final maps until yesterday, then when I watch the meeting the immediately dissapear, only to vote on something last minute even though we have no clue what it was. We’re not even sure if the map posted earlier in the thread is the actual map or not.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think maps should be official tmrw

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is this better or worse than the map that WA got in 2022?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a380eb4-b852-4a73-9439-e08ae198a671

So much better. I personally wish they rotated 4 and 5 as well, so 4 could get a higher Hispanic population.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is this better or worse than the map that WA got in 2022?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a380eb4-b852-4a73-9439-e08ae198a671

The WA-08 equivalent looks like it might be a little more D than in OTL. Pity Seattle can't have a CD all to itself.

WA-08 seems to be about two or three more points D than OTL. As for Seattle forming a CD to itself, imo it would probably be able to achieve that either in 2030 if the city continues to grow faster in population than the state average, or in 2030 or 2040 if the state gains an additional district.

Part of the issue with WA is it's relatively easy to get 7 "safe/likely" D seats on a neutrally drawn config, but it's also pretty easy to give Rs 5 seats they can realistically win.

WA is also generally annoying because there's no ideal place to cross the cascades, but for now 8 is the best option. The extreme urban-rural divide can also lead to troubles.

What I like about your map is it makes a true Seattle based CD without weakening 9 as a minority opportunity seat.

Also I was playing around on DRA and rotating 4 and 5 so they're east-west doesn't work out as nicely as I thought, so I think for now keeping them as is (as in your map), is the better option.