2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

They really trying to squeeze everything out they can

[ProgressiveModerate]

You know what’s weird to think about. In Texas, the GOP drew 13 D sinks (counting 28 as one). In the most recent Pres election Ds won 46% of the vote. In CA, the commission will likely make 10 R seats or fewer, and in the most recent election, Rs won 34% of the vote.

46% of TX population is about equal to 34% of CA’s

While this gerrymander is brutal, Democrats are extremely lucky to have such a strong geography advantage in TX. 13/38 in an R + 6 state isn’t a terrible baseline at the end of the day (though still proportionately fewer seats than they should have), since according to my calculations Ds should win about 41% of house seats in TX based on 2020 pres, which would only be about 16/38 or 3 more.

However, when geography is factored in, Ds would be expected to win 57% of seats on average in a compact TX map which is insane to think about.

Democrats are really really lucky for TX geography, meaning that they really don’t lose that much even under these horrendous lines as well as the fact the state House is kept relatively in reach.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Dems should try to argue that the GOP is "packing" Hispanic voters into TX-20 and TX-37 when 2 Hispanic majority districts can be drawn entirely within Bexar and a relatively compact 49% Hispanic district can be drawn along the I-35 corridor up to Austin, as shown above. All 3 districts would reliably send Hispanic Dems to congress.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Would anyone be able to calculate the result of extending 2012-20 trends to other districts? I tried doing it myself but turns out Texas DRA maps are too much for my laptop.

Here ya go

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm honestly relieved this is the map we got. It's still a gerrymander, of course, but it's not one that tries to undo the 2018 gains - in fact it consolidates them, and even adds one Dem seat on top of that. If the 2020 trends with Hispanics continue, that's very worrying down South, of course, but I have to hope Dems will be able to keep the 3 South Texas seats, which would make the map 14-24. Not too bad for a still GOP-leaning swing state.

Ye fortunately most of Rs gerrymander is just cancelling out their own geography issues.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump "only" won the majority of seats 85-65. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

[ProgressiveModerate]

The chances the map getting overturned, at least in the short term, are close to 0.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not saying it'd work, but why don't Dems argue for the creation of another outright majority Hispanic majority district in DFW? It can be done relatively compactly as shown above, without making TX-30 at risk of failing as a black plurality seat. Something like this would make it difficult for the GOP to crack that much of Northern Dallas County, and as a side benefit actually unpacks TX-30 and TX-33 from a partisan standpoint.

This district will never happen though no matter what the courts decide. TX Rs aren't going to waste Ellis County like that no matter the circumstances. The courts will likely rule in favor of Rs here, but even if they didn't and forced a hispanic majority district in DFW, you can bet that DFW seat will be drawn as some sort of D vote sink mostly within Dallas County while Veasey's district moves to compass the entirety of the Democratic areas in Tarrant County.

Ye ik, mainly just made the map to show 2 compact majority Hispanic districts can be made but the GOP would prolly use a more favorable configuration if this happened

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it’ll ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kinda a random thought, but the more I think about it, the more I think TX-03 could be a potential problem down the road for the GOP than TX-24.

Using Atlanta as kind of an example, TX-03 seems more like a Gwinnett County type-place- rapidly growing, diversifying, and gentrifying so will likely trend hard left by default over the course of the decade.

Meanwhile, TX-24 very much feels like northern Cobb county, an already largely established wealth white suburban community of the metro. If the district flips, while some of it could be attributed to shifting demographics and generation turnover, it’ll ultimately be from peeling off more college educated whites.

We saw in the GA runoffs for instance GA-7 vote decently to the left of GA-6 after GA-6 voted to the left of GA-7 in the 2020 Pres election, where the circumstances caused Biden to do better with college educated voters than a Dem would normally do. GA-7 also grew significantly more than GA-6 this decade population wise. GA-7 and TX-3 seem like the kind of places that are the future of the Democratic Party more than GA-6 or TX-24.

Also iirc TX-3 and GA-7 were both in the top 5 of most left shifting districts from 2016-2020 Pres

Are there any other districts similar to this? Maybe Fort Bend (now just 30% NHW) for a comparison to Gwinett/GA-07?

Def Fort Bend. Seminole may kinda qualify in a way. Also Northern Phoenix and some parts of OC (CA-45ish). Nova. Columbus perhaps?

I would say Raleigh but I feel like that’s gonna go more the way of Austin or Madison; very white but highly educated and high income.

Minneapolis prolly falls in a sort if in between category.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Overall good job, though a few concerns.

Firstly, RGV and especially that 6th are quite extreme in trying to "stretch out" Hispanic influence and combine communities that don't have much in common. I'm not crazy when it comes to the fajitas to begin with, but at the very least I think they shouyld be more contained.

2nd I would rotate your 31 and 32 within Houston to be an East-West divide rather than North-South. 31 could become the more urban seat and 32 suburban. It seems like your goal was to make 32 Hispanic, but IMO I think 30 should just be a black seat similar to the current 9th and 34th becomes a Northern Houston Hispanic seat rather than making your 30th highly competitive racially.

Outside that, I really like the way you handled DFW and rural Texas is really clean.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2nd I would rotate your 31 and 32 within Houston to be an East-West divide rather than North-South. 31 could become the more urban seat and 32 suburban. It seems like your goal was to make 32 Hispanic, but IMO I think 30 should just be a black seat similar to the current 9th and 34th becomes a Northern Houston Hispanic seat rather than making your 30th highly competitive racially.

Like this?

Ye pretty much.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/030da3ff-9dee-46e5-b77a-89e094a87811

A reminder of how much more aggressive yet cleaner the 2010 gerrymander could've been if not for patriarchal concerns. TX 2020 is def the best example of gerrymandering purely for the biggest partisan benefit no matter what incumbents say. Amazing how just a decade ago Dallas could've had a single pack and Houston 2. Also the South Texas margins were insane.

Austin should've gotten it's own sink last decade if the GOP were smart but the gerrymander narrowly survived the decade.

The current GOP gerrymander is pretty aggressive but also plays it safe. I'm curious to see how well it holds up this decade, especially if we see a continuation of what happened last decade in the suburbs. An underrated possiblity imo is that TX-23 could have a better chance of shifting D than we expect. Basically half of it is based in suburban Bexar and it only narrowly shifted between 2016 and 2020 despite the insane Hispanic swings. Still it'd take quite a bit to break any part of the gerrymander and even if parts of it fail it still benefits the GOP.

The GOP's biggest potential regret may end up being not giving Dallas a 4th sink. Also if the map is fully or partially overturned on the grounds it disenfranchises minorities they might've prefered to be a bit less sneaky with Hispanic communities.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/030da3ff-9dee-46e5-b77a-89e094a87811

A reminder of how much more aggressive yet cleaner the 2010 gerrymander could've been if not for patriarchal concerns. TX 2020 is def the best example of gerrymandering purely for the biggest partisan benefit no matter what incumbents say. Amazing how just a decade ago Dallas could've had a single pack and Houston 2. Also the South Texas margins were insane.

Austin should've gotten it's own sink last decade if the GOP were smart but the gerrymander narrowly survived the decade.

The current GOP gerrymander is pretty aggressive but also plays it safe. I'm curious to see how well it holds up this decade, especially if we see a continuation of what happened last decade in the suburbs. An underrated possiblity imo is that TX-23 could have a better chance of shifting D than we expect. Basically half of it is based in suburban Bexar and it only narrowly shifted between 2016 and 2020 despite the insane Hispanic swings. Still it'd take quite a bit to break any part of the gerrymander and even if parts of it fail it still benefits the GOP.

The GOP's biggest potential regret may end up being not giving Dallas a 4th sink. Also if the map is fully or partially overturned on the grounds it disenfranchises minorities they might've prefered to be a bit less sneaky with Hispanic communities.

Very interesting how well this map held up. Would have still been 24-12 Trump in 2020, and probably 25-11 congressionally.

Ye for how ugly it was the GOP’s 2010 gerry was pretty lame. Their new gerrymander is pretty maximal as none of the Dem sinks can be eliminated without consequences other than arguably the 4th Houston seat but that’s pushing it

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/planc2107

The C2107 plan by Logan Williams is actually really good and what a fair map would look like in Texas. It balances following Counties, Cities, COIs, compactness, and VRA quite well.

Only thing I'm not a huge fan of is this Houston config as it slightly dilutes Hispanics while also not really bringing up Black population in TX-18. Also wish there were generally more narrow Trump seats and fewer narrow Biden, but Texas geography makes this a bit weird. Also, this TX-23 may not pass muster, but it does create additional Hispanic opportunities in Dallas and San Antonio.

Really hoping for 2030 redistricting we can get a split government which ultimately leads to the court adopting a neutral map, or better, legal challenges succeed/Dems flip the TX SC before then, though this seems unlikely.

A fair map kinda exposes Rs long term problem; Texas is a pretty urban state as a whole.

[ProgressiveModerate]

3 D pack Houston that isn't too bad. Still don't understand why the GOP seemed so much more aggressive in Dallas than Houston on all levels of redistricting (state legistlative and congressional), especially when Dallas has had slightly more consistent leftward shifts

[ProgressiveModerate]

FYI a portion of Houston's ugliness is actually to work with Jackson Lee/Al Green.

Yeah the 4 D packs were originally gonna be much cleaner in earlier plans but that later changed to be quite messy. 7 has to be long though to protect VRA in the other districts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cleanest possible Texas gerrymander I could draw; it's based a lot of the GOP drawn maps but tbh, it's hard to get much better from a partisanship standpoint without getting too risky. However, in this map Houston is reduced to just 3 Dem seats and the South Texas fajitas get slightly better for Rs. Also TX-23 is split in half. This map would face a lot of VRA challenges, idk how successful they'd be though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cleanest possible Texas gerrymander I could draw; it's based a lot of the GOP drawn maps but tbh, it's hard to get much better from a partisanship standpoint without getting too risky. However, in this map Houston is reduced to just 3 Dem seats and the South Texas fajitas get slightly better for Rs. Also TX-23 is split in half. This map would face a lot of VRA challenges, idk how successful they'd be though.

[snipy snap]

How has the Dallas area and Houston area districts shifted over the years?

Here's a link for you to explore: https://davesredistricting.org/join/73b7f6b7-2147-4686-9273-14da66452362

The Dallas districts, especially the northern ones, have obviously had pretty dreadful shifts for the GOP in the recent elections. This map tries to draw them so that all of them (except 24) take in growing exurban areas to try and counteract the Dem suburban gains. North Dallas can be hard to gerrymander due to how large it is but also how little rural areas there are to work with northwards. 24 is Tarrant County suburbs, which are already well established and not particuarly fast growing, and very white, so should be okay for the GOP and frankly there's not much that can be done to shore it up without creating a bigger mess

Houston is interesting. Suburbs in the Southwest, West, Northwest, and North all have pretty brutal shifts for the GOP largely because they're growing and becoming very diverse. Even though this map unpacks 7 a bit, and actually makes it into a theoretically winnable seat for the GOP (Romney 2012), it's goal is to take in a lot of the fastest growing tossup/D leaning suburbs to ensure that growth doesn't push districts 22 or 8 towards Dems enough to flip. Like 24, there's not a ton that can be done about district 38. District 2 should be relatively safe.

Districts 14 and 29 have been more mixed bags in terms of their shifts; this is because the oil industry has a very heavy influence in both, and rightwards shifts amongst Hispanics (and a shrinking black population in 29) have caused both to stay relatively stagnant despite obvious suburban spillover.

36 has also been relatively stagnant. The district is a bit misleading because about 75% is in Harris County and the district is only 40% white. Essentially, what it does is it combiens some very D yet historically low turnout black and Hispanic Communities in North Houston with extremely R higher turnout exurbs and rurals. The political future of this district depends upon if Dems can increase their own turnout nubmers in Harris County with minorities.

All 3 "fajitas" shifted hard right in 2020, though 28 has shifted a bit left some elections before that due to being heavily based in Bexar County. The political futures of these districts are hard to predict, but I tried to make it so there's not much optimism for Dems in 15.

Austin is prolly where this gerrymander cedes cleanliness for potentially failing down the road. Both districts 10 and 25 are based heavily in Austin suburbs which have been seeing absolute booms in population, plus district 10 takes in College Station. It's not hard to see wither district flipping or coming close to flipping by the end of the decade, but this is the best I coudl do without doing the absolute obliteration the GOP did.

Overall, even if the Austin area is slightly weaker, it makes the fajitas slightly more favourable to the GOP and contains the Dems to just 3 seats in Houston, making the baseline one less D seat and one more R seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apparently the justice department wants to look through the Texas map drawer's DRA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Apparently the justice department wants to look through the Texas map drawer's DRA.

That’s weirdly specific? Why do they want to do that? Are they trying to establish a pattern? If they look through mine they’d be baffled at it with all the weird maps

Looking for a pattern is the only explanation that thus far makes sense to me.

Another underrated possibility is looking at names/labels of previous versions of the maps. Like hypothetically if he has a group of maps in a category labeled "illegal" and they're quite simillar or even the same as the current TX map, that would be gold (probably won't be something that direct though).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here we go again ig

Predictions?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here we go again ig

Predictions?

Predictions for what?

Redistricting; they’re taking it up again and are gonna make some changes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here we go again ig

Predictions?

Predictions for what?

Redistricting; they’re taking it up again and are gonna make some changes.

For congress, or just the legislative maps?

I think for both, but can’t confirm. There’s a few articles on it but the information is vague.

The main concerns seem to be that they passed the maps too late in the previous session cause of delayed census, and some legal concerns around the maps.

They can’t honestly do much more in terms of maximizing their gerrymanders.

For congressional, they could theoretically crack heavily Hispanic TX-29 in Houston but that could cuss a VRA legal issue. They might also try to optimize the RGV a bit more. Idk.