2020 Oregon Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

2 Safe R, 3 Safe D, one Likely D (Clinton +8):

I think Dems should be fine with this.

I feel like Democrats don’t understand the urgency of maximizing their advantage during this process. These maps last 10 years and Republicans in Texas, Florida, Ohio, etc, are going to be ruthless. One seat can make a difference in the balance of power.

5-1 or bust in Oregon. 14-3 in Illinois.

5-1 won’t happen unless Dems refuse to compromise, which would result in a walkout. 

If neither side can end up agreeing does the state SC draw the map?

[ProgressiveModerate]

2 Safe R, 3 Safe D, one Likely D (Clinton +8):

I think Dems should be fine with this.

I feel like Democrats don’t understand the urgency of maximizing their advantage during this process. These maps last 10 years and Republicans in Texas, Florida, Ohio, etc, are going to be ruthless. One seat can make a difference in the balance of power.

5-1 or bust in Oregon. 14-3 in Illinois.

5-1 won’t happen unless Dems refuse to compromise, which would result in a walkout. 

If neither side can end up agreeing does the state SC draw the map?

That is correct, which is controlled by D appointees.

Then wouldn't it be better for Dems to ask the favorable SC to draw the maps rather than make a 3-3 map in a Biden + 16 state?

[ProgressiveModerate]

According to my calculations (based on 2016 Pres), the new GOP proposed map would be a 3.39D-2.61R map on average, with a competitiveness score of 38.14 (would be considered one of the highest in the nation), with a bias of R + 16.03 (one of the most offensive in the nation). For reference states like GA and SC have bias scores of about R + 16 currently.

[ProgressiveModerate]

According to my calculations (based on 2016 Pres), the new GOP proposed map would be a 3.39D-2.61R map on average, with a competitiveness score of 38.14 (would be considered one of the highest in the nation), with a bias of R + 16.03 (one of the most offensive in the nation). For reference states like GA and SC have bias scores of about R + 16 currently.

The issue with that measure is this
 

Now you can say that Eastern OR is an R vote sink but its more a vote sink comparable to Washington County. After that the rest of Oregon is relatively evenly distributed at Trump +1.

Ye this is very much a Wisconsin-esq situation where Dems are naturally packed. The intentended bias is prolly less, but the objective partisan bias is quite a lot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

PlanScore ratings for the three state house map proposals:

A (37-23 D)



B (30-30 D)



C (37-23 D)

30-30 in a Safe D state doesn’t seem fair in any way. 37-23 (I assume on 2016 numbers) is actually about a fair map from a partisan standpoint; maybe a seat or 2 D biased though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gotta says OR Dems were prolly some of the biggest team players this cycle for the national party. They really compromised on the state legislative map, giving several Rs who could've been drawn out safe seats and making both chambers very winnable for Rs in 2022 in exchange for the 5-1 delegation. That's further than any state party has gone on either side of the aisle to get favorable congressional maps