2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know when we’ll have a final map. This might be one final small W for Dems this cycle but we’ll see if the map survives the decade

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know when we’ll have a final map. This might be one final small W for Dems this cycle but we’ll see if the map survives the decade

https://lailluminator.com/2022/06/22/its-basically-a-race-3-courts-consider-future-of-louisianas-congressional-districts/

Thanks.

Tomorrow will be a big day because it's the last day to stay the ruling by the SCOTUS (the stay has already failed the conservative 5th circuit court). Given how last minute they stayed the Alabama case, there's def a good chance we see a repeat here.

Really hoping they draw the and enact a better map ASAP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will it become legal to draw out Troy Carter?

Very unlikely in the sense there can be 0 functioning black districts in the state, however, LA-02 could be an illegal racial pack/sort. At the very least it’d likely be illegal to crack New Orleans black community which is enough to make any district lean D

Any even if VRA is completely gutted I doubt LA Rs would draw a 6-0 map as it’s not easy to balance partisanship of all 6 seats in a way that satisfies incumbents (which they had focused on in drawing their initial map)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.   

Maybe in an off cycle 2022 situation where we saw low black turnout, especially in much of the SouthEastern US. However, I think politics are particularly polarized in the deep South, and in a Pres year you should have more even turnout dynamics; Letlow would be an underdog heading into 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

Alito, who responds to these things from the 5th, has given the state until 10/10  to respond. Then it will be presented to the full body, similar to how the state of Alabamas appeal to halt the master was handled.  If the Milligan majority behaves like it did there, they will slap down the state for failing to comply the first time and affirm the plaintiffs. But this is Louisiana and that was Alabama,  so who knows if circumstances may change.

So basically, if SCOTUS sees LA as a similar situation to AL, we'll get a new map with 2 black opportunity seats by 2024. If not, the map will just stay as is?

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess is they either draw a "compact" Baton-Rouge based seat that voted for Trump due to the hyper-R white suburbs, or a 45% black seat that selectively on takes in hyper-R rurals so it's functionally an R seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you think part of the reason Rs (appear) to be willing to comply is because of their recent strong performances in LA races? Perhaps they think in the long run they’d be favored to win a heavily black Biden+ 6-10 seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m suprised that plan appears to take in nearly all of EastBaton Rouge County Parish. Would’ve thought the GOP would’ve kept out some of the R-leaning decently well-to-do southern part of the County for donor purposes, plus that area is shifting left which might put the district out the reach for Rs in the long run.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747039115097395694

It’s hard to tell but does 1 take in some heavily D precincts along the New Orleans waterfront? Or are the areas it takes in all basically 0 population or Republican leaning

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747039115097395694

It’s hard to tell but does 1 take in some heavily D precincts along the New Orleans waterfront? Or are the areas it takes in all basically 0 population or Republican leaning

I think thats just Lakeview, the water precinct, and the Bayou precincts in the far east for road connectivity from the bridge to the south suburbs.

Ye that’s sort of what I thought too, but the border between 1 and 2 looked a little rough along the lake even in the more liberal/black parts of New Orleans- it might just be image compression.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm glad they're not drawing out Julia Letlow. I like her. I don't agree with a lot of her views, but I tolerate them and respect her for being a young single mother who went to Congress after her elected husband tragically died of Covid before he could take office (and the fact that she tried to combat vaccine hesitancy among Republicans). She's a quiet and hard-working member of Congress who you can tell is in it to get things done for her constituents and not be a bombthrower.

Question though - if Graves runs against her in the primary for the 5th, could he have a shot? Letlow's district will be gaining a good amount of Graves's political base in southern Baton Rouge and the Livingston Parish area. That's got to be a significant chunk of the primary electorate.

Honestly underrated political divide is people who came to Congress in good faith to be genuine vs people who came to Congress for their own self-interests.

Also yes she would certainly be vulnerable given many of Graves areas are higher turnout too. Overall though, the primary prolly comes down to who more prominent Republicans throw their support behind, and that’ll prolly be Letlow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

With that level of border gore, I'm half surprised they didn't decide to give the 6th an arm to Lake Charles...

Nah it's really hard to make an arm to Lake Charles worth it under any config. You have to pick up too many deep red rural precincts without gaining that much black population. Also traditionally in LA redistricting they minimize precinct splits.

[ProgressiveModerate]

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1748132861868130592

So did the state of Louisiana as a whole, actually. 2008 was a localized Republican mini-wave there, partially because it was at a local nadir of population in Orleans Parish (basically everyone who had left post-Katrina had left, but people hadn't really started returning yet), and partially because anger at the Democratic-controlled state government over the Katrina response took a while to really crystallize. McCain was the single strongest 21st-century Republican presidential nominee in Louisiana (the only state where that's true). The GOP also gained 2 US House seats in 2008 and had a very strong result in Louisiana in the off-year 2007 election (gaining in both houses of the state legislature -- though not taking either yet -- and flipping the positions of Governor, Attorney General, and state Treasurer).

Here's a 2008-->2020 swing map -- Louisiana stands out!

Yeah I remember making this a while back too, and I was pretty shocked.

Some other things I would add in additional to your point -

Obama 2008 honestly did pretty bad at the time for a Presidential Dem in the Southeast US mainly cause of how rural white voters swung hard right. If one looks at the 2004-2008 swing map of LA, generally Obama improved in counties with notable black populations while losing ground everywhere else. By 2008, many rural white areas in the southeast were already so red they couldn't get that much redder over the next 16 years.

Another factor too is LA actually has a decent number of urban/suburban white places where Dems have made gains over the past decade.

And finally the state overall is getting blacker. A lot of communities that were already heavily black have gotten blacker, and are expanding.



Here's the 2008-2020 LA swing map at the precinct level.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For someone who's more legally inclined, how probable are the following outcomes at this point:

1. The current map staying in place (i.e. SCOTUS overruling this lower court)

2. Going back to a 5-1 map (possible the old map)

3. Getting an actually compact map with 2 black seats.

I would assume #3 is by far the most probably outcome by are 1 and 3 possible?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fair map and compact map of Louisiana lol.