2020 Poll Hype Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

This isn't really poll hype, but I have no idea where else it would belong:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1319041354924761093

Where was Biden up 3 in OH? Anyways, it was a pretty bad day for Trump in polls, but a little bit of a better day for Rs in the senate, though still pretty bad

[ProgressiveModerate]

OurProgress teasing a Mississippi poll released October 25 and a Montana poll released October 26.

Really excited for MT. MS-Sen could be close but I really don't buy it flipping under pretty much any circumstance

[ProgressiveModerate]

Y2 Analytics poll of Utah coming soon.

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/25238-voter-opinions-split-on-job-approval-of-utah-legislature

Nice! I doubt UT will flip, but it'll definately be interesting to see how the margin is considering Trump is probably the worst Republican for the state and Biden is a decent fit for a Democrat. There's also some other longer term trends working in Ds favor in UT, such as the fact that Mormon's are making up a smaller and smaller (though still a very large) chunk of the population, and UT is a more urban state

[ProgressiveModerate]

Y2 Analytics poll of Utah coming soon.

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/25238-voter-opinions-split-on-job-approval-of-utah-legislature

Nice! I doubt UT will flip, but it'll definately be interesting to see how the margin is considering Trump is probably the worst Republican for the state and Biden is a decent fit for a Democrat. There's also some other longer term trends working in Ds favor in UT, such as the fact that Mormon's are making up a smaller and smaller (though still a very large) chunk of the population, and UT is a more urban state

Sorry, I think that’s the old poll

I was so excited...

[ProgressiveModerate]

TX is next in line:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319627897905291265

I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX

[ProgressiveModerate]

TX is next in line:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319627897905291265

I’m thinking Trump + 3, 47-44, with Cornyn up 6 45-39 in the senate race. NYT polls have had a lot of undecideds and are a bit favorable to Rs overall. At least we’ll be getting a “high quality” poll of TX

NYT polls are not favorable to R’s lol

Relative to other polls it seems like they have been this cycle, but maybe that’s just the high number of undecides. TBF though, they have released some polls that seem favorable to Trump and others that seem favorable to Biden, I think the high number of undecides is just messing with my head

[ProgressiveModerate]

My guess is that it shows Trump up 47-43 or smtg and everyone on this forum starts dooming about Texas, which will be hilarious no matter what goes down come election night.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be shocked if NYT showed anything better than a tie in TX for Biden. I have a feeling it'll be something "dissapointing" that everyone here will start freaking out over.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would be shocked if NYT showed anything better than a tie in TX for Biden. I have a feeling it'll be something "dissapointing" that everyone here will start freaking out over.

With the consistent under polling for Dems in Texas, all i want is something close. Trump+2 is a great result for Biden. The polling firms, even the great ones like NYT, still aren’t too great at Texas. NYT/Siena has Cruz +8 in October.

Yeah, I pretty much agree with you. TX is a new swing state and it is very difficult to poll, which leads to polling that tends to be unreliable.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rassy +1 head to head, NPV (48%-47%)

Rassy +6 approvals (52%-46%)

Along with Rassy polling good battle ground states.

Walls are closing in, Dems.

Rassy is a very unreliable pollster. Cherry pick all you want but Biden is up by 9% nationally in the 538 aggregate of polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maine, Colby poll tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1321097951272488962

If Collins leads (or is within 3) I’m going to cry

Glad we’re getting another quality ME poll. This is long overdue and the uncertainty of where the race stands makes me uneasy

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maine, Colby poll tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1321097951272488962

If Collins leads (or is within 3) I’m going to cry

Maybe there's a chance the NYT polls it? I mean, ME-AL seems Likely Biden, but the 2nd District and the Senate race are still competitive so they might have an incentive to poll it.

I hope, but knowing them they prolly won’t do a RCV model and it’s like 44-40 with Gideon leading and Savage with like 6%

[ProgressiveModerate]

Tomorrow:
TX - NYT/Siena
GA - AJC

Wednesday
WI - Marquette Law School

Update
Today:
MI - NYT/Siena
Two states from Reuters/Ipsos (some combination of AZ, FL, NC, and MI)

Tomorrow:
WI - Marquette
Final two states from Reuters/Ipsos (some combination of AZ, FL, NC, and MI)
ME - Colby
NV - NYT/Siena

Thursday:
NC - NYT/Siena

Polling has been kinda slow these last few days considering how close we are. We’ll prolly get a TON of polls on Halloween and the weekend before

[ProgressiveModerate]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Selzer is the last big poll I'm interested in. Probably the last data point that will shape many of our predictions.

Why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

The Selzer poll right before the 2016 election showed Trump leading by 7 and foretold his massive surge with WWC voters in the Midwest.

Isn't Selzer literally just IA?

[ProgressiveModerate]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

We just hit 100K cases a day with the virus and Trump is even more of a trainwreck than usual. How are things going towards his favor here at the end?

Low minority turnout numbers, Republicans coming home, Cubans in Florida.

1. There hasn’t been any stark drop off in minority turnout based on the early voting numbers. Minorities always tend to turn out at lower rates than whites, and there is evidence to suggests that gap is narrowing.

2. The majority of the electorate is Democrats and Independents.

3. That is true, but that’s something gijg isolated to a very specific state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Geez, seriously, why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Geez, seriously, why is everyone so obsessed with this Selzer poll?

They're gold standard

So literally every other poll we've gotten that indicates a Biden + 7/8/9/10/11/12 or even more PV win is useless?