Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[ProgressiveModerate]

On a weird sidenote while neither chamber is really in competition this cycle, Dems are likely to stay about their current standing in both chambers even in a terrible year, not that it matters much from a power perspective. The GOP ceded quite a few seats to Dems that allow them to get quite close to a majority in both chambers easily while making the finish line extremely difficult. There is a notable lack of competitive seats. Dems main possibility in breaking through is the continued diversification of the Northern side of Atlanta and flip a lot of currently Trump + 10ish seats.

Another thing to note is the GOP failed to get canidates to run in like 3 House districts in South Georgia they could theoretically win; one is a rapidly trending black belt Biden + 0.5 seat (HD-128)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Money isn't going to be a problem when it comes to the governor's race, infact I'd argue each additional dollar begins to contribute less and less to the actual campaign's success. This is 100% going to be a race of turnout, and while money def helps, it's going to come down to more local efforts and general messaging.

Ig another thing Abrams could sorta run on if you're really concerned about losing moderate Rs is subtley pointing out the fact no matter what Rs p much will control the state leg anyways.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It seems Trump has more sway in the Midwest and in the Appalachian South, and less so in the Southeast and the Rockies. Interesting.

I'm not sure it's that straightforward.  Local factors and candidate quality matter!  In Georgia, Kemp has been an effective governor (I'm a Democrat and will be the first to acknowledge this) while Perdue is a much poorer candidate.  Trump's endorsement isn't enough to overcome that.  Simiarly, Trump wasn't enough to put the awful Herbster over the top in Nebraska.  But in Ohio, the endorsement was enough of a factor in a large, muddled field to give Vance the win.

In other words, Trump's endorsement is generally helpful to a candidate, but it doesn't trump (ahem) all other factors.

It mainly seems effective when everyone in the field is relatively unknown.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kind of funny how the tables have completely turned from a few years ago when Kemp ran as a "politically incorrect conservative" and Perdue was a suburban-friendly Chamber of Commerce type.

None have very strong values imo, especially Perdue. They just do what seems politically expediant.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sabato has moved Georgia Governor to Lean R!

If only Sabato can move it to Lean D to boost Abrams chabces

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1530594117599776768

can’t fix stupid

If Kemp narrowly loses, there’s a good chance these voters (or non voters in 2022) could be the difference.

My guess is the ultimate map is basically 2020 with a slightly better performance by Kemp in Cobb/northern Fulton, ect while Abrams does well in Gwinnett and the more diverse suburbs to the east. Rural GA prolly has a pretty universal small R swing. (Similar to the regular GA 2020 Sen race pre runoff). At face value this should be a narrow Kemp victory but if rural GA has even a slight dent in turnout it could spell trouble.

[ProgressiveModerate]

^^^ Not sure if splitting counties is allowed under current PSC district rules (or how equal in population they have to be; I assumed relatively so in the latter case), but alas: I split Dekalb here. This is a "fair" map overall (2 R, 2 D, 1 swing; 1 plurality-black district). The swing district was won by Trump by 0.2 points in 2020.




Without county splits, it's fairly difficult to draw 2 coherent majority/plurality-BVAP districts in the state. Even with a handful of county splits, the best I could do on the fly was one majority-BVAP (51%; Biden +20) & one plurality-BVAP (47%; Biden +42), with the "swing district" being 18% BVAP & Trump +6 (less black than the 31% BVAP district Trump won by 19 points).


Truthfully, I think this is a prime example of where the VRA tends to shoot Democrats and minority representation in the foot, because if majority-black district(s) are required, it will relegate the PSC to a likely permanent 3R-2D status (as opposed to a majority-D, heavily black-influenced electoral system in the near future under the status quo).

As long as a district is functionally minority, it is considered a VRA district and 40% of districts is greater than the 30% black population in the state.

Imo, the best thing to do would be something akin to your map but make a safe black seat in South/West Atlanta and a more diverse black plurality seat in east Atlanta that includes Gwinnett.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If I were in charge and could county split, this is how I would draw the map. The downtown Atlanta seat is obviously majority black and the swing seat in the Southwest would elect a black D if it elected a D. The swingier Altanta seat is plurality white but minority coalition having a notable Hispanic and Asian population. This map could give either side up to a 4-1 majority on the board, and the median seat would be Biden + 1 which overall seems pretty fair

[ProgressiveModerate]

Has Abrams finally realized one of the weakest links in her electoral chain from 2018, and is trying to address it? Hopefully so!

Stacey Abrams: ‘If Black men vote for me, I’ll win Georgia.’

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll last month showed Abrams underperforming with Black voters, with about 80% of the vote, and significantly trailing Gov. Brian Kemp among male voters, 57% to 33%.

...

Abrams’ performance among Black men, in particular, is one reason she’s lagging behind Kemp in public and internal surveys. That’s a metric she and her campaign are working to change in the months ahead.

Been talking about this for years: in the months following the 2018 election, her campaign tried to act as if she achieved some unprecedented level of support % among black voters across the board (patently false with some simple precinct analysis); the reality was that she did worse with black men than any prominent statewide candidate in modern Georgia history (worse than Jason Carter & worse than Hillary Clinton). Keep in mind that historically, black women make up 60%+ of black voters in Georgia, so perhaps they just ignored this dynamic prior. If she had held Carter's share of the vote among black men, she possibly would be running for re-election right now (via a runoff win, but still).

I don't know how much there is to be said about negative stereotypes and the supposed notion that black men don't want to "take orders" from black women, but it was peculiar how in a Democratic surge election, black men were one of only like 2 major groups (along with rurals) that swung R. She definitely lost immense ground with black rural men in 2018 (if not for the above reason, then my next suspicion would be her past positions on guns; not every black person lives in urban GA, after all).

I do know in my heart of hearts that, overall, if Abrams-18 had just taken the position of every other recent gubernatorial nominee in GA on guns and confederate monuments (i.e. "duck and dodge"), she'd be the current Governor of Georgia. She set a wildfire across (particularly white) rural GA and it absolutely cost her in the end.

Looking at precinct results, Abrams def did slightly better than Clinton with black voters in greater Atlanta overall as well as smaller cities. Rural GA is a bit tricky to tell because most rural precincts with large black populations are depopulating and becoming whiter, plus Kemp universally improved in rural areas over Trump throughout GA (whereas Abrams had a pretty universal overperformance in the metros).

I think in hindsight given Biden's victory and the Senate races, Abram's performance in 2018 really doesn't seem all that impressive, but her performance amongst black voters was genuinely impressive.

To me, it seems like Abrams problem in 2018 was universally underperforming Biden in white communities throughout the state, especially many Atlanta suburbs.

Any honestly, Democrats expecting to win black voters by like 90% seems like a really tough strategy with minimal reward long term. Yes, every vote counts, but that sort of political lop-sideness just seems unsustainable, espeically as younger generations of black voters tend to be slightly less Dem already.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at precinct results, Abrams def did slightly better than Clinton with black female voters in greater Atlanta overall as well as smaller cities.

Again, given that they are 60% or more of the black vote in most places in GA, her improvement there helped offset the toplines to a degree. Even comparing at the county level, let alone the precinct level (both of which in GA publish turnout and registration figures by every race/gender combo), there was a clear correlation to places where Abrams made up less ground/lost ground & where black men were closer to 50-55% of the black electorate, as opposed to 60-65%.

I'd also say that comparing to Biden/Warnock/Ossoff might not be the right measurement for that time and place: comparing to Clinton was the better choice then. End result: all of the kudos Abrams got for turning out voters really was rooted in the fact that AVR went into effect immediately following 2016, with an average of 350k new voters per year being added to the rolls each year consistently up until the 2020 election. Abrams enjoyed better figures turnout-wise largely because the voting pool got dramatically expanded and when people get registered, they tend to vote at levels closer to that of the previously-registered. I've actually broke down the statistics on AVR/turnout/etc in Georgia previously if you're interested - I'd just need to find the past posts with the figures in them. Long and short: Abrams saw surges in most voter groups because AVR picked up lower-propensity voters who were more likely to back Ds in the first place, which ultimately carried over (and doubled in size) for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock.

Biden definitely ended up doing even worse with black men than Abrams, so perhaps some is an irreversible trend now that we have another set of elections with the same patterns occurring - but I do know if Abrams only tries to run up the score with black women, she won't garner the numbers necessary in this type of election to cross the finish line.

Yeah, fair enough, it can just be difficult to tell the gender divide cause gender tends to be pretty evenly distributed across communities though I trust your analysis on this.

Abrams def helped to accelerate shifts in the state for Dems and her 2018 Gov race was sorta a midpoint between 2018 and 2020. I have no doubt without her Biden prolly would've narrowly lost the state and Perdue may have outright won.

Obviously, I don't think Democrats should ignore any voters and I think much of their messaging has been offputting to many men, especially men who believe in more traditional gender roles. If they can't appeal to men that's a problem cause men are a huge chunk of the electorate anywhere. However, to believe that getting like 90% of the black male vote is realistic long term is probably setting one up for disappointment, especially as younger generations of black folks don't hold the same identity many of their parents held. What matters more with the black vote imo is turnout overall since higher black turnout always means a stronger dem performance statewide reguardless if you're winning the black vote 85-12 or 90-8

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/jchaltiwanger/status/1567604270803075072



RCP already has him at 49%, I think he clearly wins without a runoff only question is does he get enough to take Walker with him?

We'll see as the election gets closer if he's still polling at sub 50% levels. Generally a candidate doesn't do much worse than their average in the polls, but at this point it's basically impossible to see Abrams winning outright. A good example of what could happen with polls would be Perdue v Ossoff where Perdue's share was pretty consistent throughout, but Ossoff really shot up a lot in the last month and he ultimately forced a runoff and is now Senator. I think lean Kemp feels fair.

[ProgressiveModerate]

538: How Black Americans Reshaped Politics In Georgia

This is a must-read for anyone interested in Georgia politics.

This is actually quite a good piece thank you for sharing.

Georgia is really special because I think it’s the first case where black voters can dominate a Dem primary but also Dems have the votes to realistically win statewide without extraordinary circumstances. Maryland comes close except you have tons of white liberals and Hispanics to the point where Black voters seem to be a large plurality in the dem primaries but not majority.

Georgia’s black population is also genuinely very diverse. You have rural black communities. Urban black communities. Both poor and wealthy pockets of black voters, especially in Atlanta. And a good scattering of black voters in suburbs often seen as mostly white. I think Georgia will be fascinating to watch cause I could def see 10 years down the road black Dems holding basically all statewide offices.

And unlike much of the southeast, the black population is actually growing, growing fast, but also expanding rapidly into new places. This def explains why long term Georgia is going to be such a problem for the gop until black voters end voting like 90-8 in favor of Dems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

So, Ryan just randomly overperformed? There has been no heavily documented shift in special election results post-Dobbs?

Worth noting that in NY-19, a lot of rural areas actually shifted towards Molinaro from 2020 Pres and he greatly overperformed in his home County of Dutchess.

However, the turnout in that election was still in the 30s even though we know it'll be higher in November. That increase could wipe out whatever turnout edge Dems may have had.

[ProgressiveModerate]

To me it seems like Abrams believes she can win with purely strong turnout amongst the black community and white liberals when practically the numbers just aren't there.

This kinda makes sense though since as an organizer, she was very effective and often seen as the reason Biden carried GA in 2020. But Biden won on a combination of BOTH strong black turnout and appeal to swing voters, specifically in many whiter suburbs in the northern parts of Atlanta where he saw like 20 point swings in his favour.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A summary of the Senate and gubernatorial results in each Metro ATL precinct with at least 40% Asian VAP:

DeKalb
Dunwoody (42.1% Asian): Warnock +38.3, Abrams +23.6 (Warnock +14.7)

Forsyth
Johns Creek (41.6% Asian): Walker +6.3, Kemp +22.5 (Warnock +16.2)
Windermere (41.1% Asian): Walker +13.5, Kemp +29.6 (Warnock +16.1)

Fulton
Alpharetta 12B (58.4% Asian): Warnock +28.4, Abrams +10.6 (Warnock +17.8 )
Johns Creek 1 (54.3% Asian): Warnock +24.4, Abrams +9.1 (Warnock +15.3)
Johns Creek 2 (46.2% Asian): Warnock +20.1, Abrams +3.9 (Warnock +16.2)
Johns Creek 7 (45.9% Asian): Warnock +20.3, Abrams +4.3 (Warnock +16.0)
Johns Creek 6 (41.9% Asian): Warnock +1.8, Kemp +12.3 (Warnock +14.1)
Sandy Springs 29A (40.9% Asian): Warnock +33.0, Abrams +20.3 (Warnock +12.7)

Gwinnett
Duluth I (54.5% Asian): Walker +0.1, Kemp +18.0 (Warnock +17.9)

All of this is to say that, as exits suggested, Abrams did very, very poorly with Asian voters, more noticeably so than with any other racial group. Of course, her biggest underperformances were in wealthy white precincts around Buckhead, Sandy Springs, and Brookhaven, but this assortment of precincts comes pretty close.

I feel like a lot of these Asian voters tend to be pretty wealthy and educated, so it's not terribly surprising that they have a penchant for splitting tickets like a lot of wealthy and educated white voters.

The Asian Community, not just in Georgia, but across the US is often a bit annoying to analyze because outside like LA and NYC, you don't get consistent pockets of 70 or 80%+ Asian precincts. Asians also tend to be a pretty low turnout group. In Georgia, there are only a few 50%+ Asian precincts, so it's possible some of these shifts could be attributed to the higher turnout white populations in these communities.

Generally though, it seems Asians tend to favor incumbents unless the incumbent does something to particularly piss their community off (see NY-Gov), so it's not surprising if Kemp pretty significantly outran Walker with these voters.