US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that’s interesting is we might actually end up with a pretty fair Louisiana House map and Dems might be able to continue to deny the GOP a supermajority.

According to my calculations, Dems actually have a pretty decent geography advantage in the state, mostly thanks to white rurals “hyper packing” and black areas being lower turnout. Combine that with VRA, and you get a bunch of 60ish% Dem districts and 80% R districts. It’s actually pretty easy to make a relatively compact LA House map on 2020 numbers where Biden outright wins a majority of seats.

Am I saying Dems will outright win a majority under the new maps. Def not. However, I do think they will be given a good 40% of the seats or so and have no less of a viable path to a majority than in a state like Ohio or even Wisconsin which is weird to think about.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One map creates 2nd black seat and another keeps the LA-02 snake least change map (Dem vs R map)

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 5 maps. 1, 3 and 5 appear to make a 2nd black seat, while 2 and 4 don't. Things about to get heated.

[ProgressiveModerate]

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

The second map lacks a 6th district. I don't know what happened there.

Oh shoot the 2nd map isn't a congressional map good catch

[ProgressiveModerate]

So basically we have 1 least change map that keeps the Snake and 3 that create a 2nd minority/Dem leaning seat.

The least change map was introduced by R and the 3 2nd Dem seat maps are introduced by Dems

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting thing is both maps make LA-06 noticeably less red, though not enough to be competitive. Wonder why considering the other seats are Uber safe and LA-02 isn’t severely overpopulated or anything.

Also interesting that all the Dem maps with the 2nd black seat make it extremely safe rather than some of the Biden + 6 or Biden + 10 configs I’ve seen here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Surprising how ugly most of these maps are. I tried making a more compact one. https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2e3ecff-2da9-42f2-b9bb-d467c78a4a52

In this map the 2nd district is plurality-black CVAP despite only staying in the New Orleans area- there's no need to expand it outwards any further. And the 6th is Biden+3 so would probably stay R in 2022 but would be competitive in general. 5th is Trump+16 so almost certainly safe but could conceivably fall with a strong candidate in a favourable midterm.

Part of me is immensely displeased by the fact your 2nd splits both Orleans and Jefferson parishes, while another part of me is pleased by the compactness.
I guess what I would have done is give it all of Orleans but otherwise leave the map unchanged.

Louisiana Parishes, especially in the Southeast corner suck

[ProgressiveModerate]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 5R/1D map on the House floor with exactly enough votes for a veto override.  The same D and I voted for it as before at the committee level.  There has to be another vote after JBE vetoes, of course.

Wild that Dems won't get a say in Louisiana or Kansas while they did get a say in Ohio and North Carolina.

They def cut some sort of deal with this D; maybe shored up their legislative district or something?

Still kinda unfortunate though, small chance maybe Dems can pull someone back into their corner but I'm expecting the ugly snake to stay for at least 2022.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 5R/1D map on the House floor with exactly enough votes for a veto override.  The same D and I voted for it as before at the committee level.  There has to be another vote after JBE vetoes, of course.

Wild that Dems won't get a say in Louisiana or Kansas while they did get a say in Ohio and North Carolina.

They def cut some sort of deal with this D; maybe shored up their legislative district or something?

Still kinda unfortunate though, small chance maybe Dems can pull someone back into their corner but I'm expecting the ugly snake to stay for at least 2022.

This could be the last chance LA Dems get for 30+ years.

Ye and the thing that's unfortunate is if a 2nd Black district is created, it'll be harder for the GOP to get away with cracking in 2030, especially if Baton Rouge continues to grow rapidly.

Also interesting is that former Dem (now I) Melinda white voted to advance the maps in committee but appears to have voted against them on the House floor. She represents a deep red district and would largely fall into the group of "conservative rural/former Dem"

[ProgressiveModerate]

Again why was this always 2 black districts, or this absurd pack? Why was there no debate about creating a lean to likely R district in the region instead?

Uh have you been living under a rock.

Neither side was ever going to agree on a compromise map, especially in a state like Louisiana where Republicans are extremely conservative, and Democrats are mostly African American

[ProgressiveModerate]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden majority Louisiana:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b0da11e2-f771-49f7-b145-3ac5c248ee0c

As I always say, Louisiana Geography is quite surprising in how much it favors Ds, especially on the state House level

Could've prolly squeezed another seat or two out of BR if I really wanted to and another from New Orleans

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn’t JBE running out of time to veto?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

It's really a question of how much you prioritize VRA.

The Trump + 10 seat may be the fairest when not considering race as a factor, but it's pretty much one of the "least black" Baton Rouge seat possible without outright splitting the black community down the middle. By connecting Black parts of Baton Rouge to rurals and smaller cities with black populations, it splits the metro but increases BVAP.

Feels sorta like the new AL-07, CA-22 or VA-04. Both seats could've been drawn to be more based around a single metro, but instead reach into rurals to increase their minority functioning ability. Why shouldn't the same precedent apply here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

I’m no expert on LA politics, but they had a supermajority and change to pass, why would it be hard to veto?