How did Trump come so close to winning in 2020 given the macro circumstances?

[MARGINS6729]

-Biden was an establishment candidate who didn't excite the Democratic base, just like Hillary was. His main selling point was that he was not Trump, just like Hillary.
-Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning as a result of the pandemic, while Republicans largely maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning (indeed, exit polls showed that Trump won voters who decided their vote in October or later).

Yup. You could also argue that Trump wasn't really blamed for the economy as it was a result of a worldwide pandemic. Sure, he handled the health crisis extremely poorly, but the economy would have tanked under any administration. That was also the case in other countries with competent leaders.

Definitely- I think the principal of Americans not voting out a President during wartime applied to Trump after COVID and the lockdowns/defund the police hurt Democrats more than people thought.

[MARGINS6729]

Because Dems keep underestimating the guy. After he won in 2016 they should have learned not to treat the election like a done deal. They did a better job in 2020, but Biden still overestimated his lead and as a result Trump almost won again. The craziest part is they still underestimate Donald J. Trump after 2016 and 2020!

Democrats worked really hard to stop Trump in the three Rustbelt states but got lazy with Latinos.