Will a winner ever carry fewer than 23 states? (user search)
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  Will a winner ever carry fewer than 23 states? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will a winner ever carry fewer than 23 states?  (Read 1170 times)
ultraviolet
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« on: December 04, 2020, 04:14:06 PM »

Actually plausible 20-30 map:



I’d say it’s more likely than not that a winner will carry less than 23 states in the next 20 years
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ultraviolet
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,954
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.71, S: -3.22

P P P
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2020, 11:34:45 AM »

Given the Democrats' increased dependence on urban and suburban voters (which are mostly concentrated in large states), they could very realistically do this, especially if they manage to flip Texas and retain Georgia and Pennsylvania in future elections.

Pennsylvania seems pretty gone after Biden though? 

The real question is if places like AK/KS/NE keep swinging left fast enough to become top tier competitive by the time Texas does and if the GOP eventually succeeds in flipping some New England states. 

How is Pennsylvania gone? Philly’s huge suburbs will keep it competitive for quite some time, it’s most certainly not gone.

And KS/NE aren’t going to be as competitive as PA for a while, also they aren’t very big prizes. AK maybe. Either way, those states won’t be a core part of Ds path to victory in the near future
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