So I drew a D gerrymander of the State Senate to see how many Biden seats you can get. I was able to get 19/33 (please note I completely ignored the nested Assembly seats issue):
Despite that and this being far more hideous than the current gerrymander...this is actually a significantly less effective gerrymander and arguably even worse for Democrats than a "fair map" is for Republicans. In fact PlanScore actually considers this a Republican-leaning map that would vote 57% R in a vacuum although that's based on what I consider significantly flawed methodology*, and considers three of the Biden seats (the southwest Wisconsin one, Racine/southern Milwaukee suburbs-based and Appleton-based ones) to actually be R-leaning seats and the Green Bay one a complete 50/50 one. That means by its standards this is actually a 15.5 D/17.5 R map. Walker actually did win two of the Biden seats (the inner Milwaukee suburbs one and Appleton one) which means Evers still got a majority at 17 and I have no doubt he won both this year and I think they're greatly overestimating the southwest Wisconsin's seats likeliness to vote R...but this still isn't wave-proof. The median seat was about 51 Biden-47 Trump (the Appleton one) and in the 2018 Governor's race it was 49.47 Evers-48.25 Walker (the Racine/South Milwaukee one.)
*The reason is that their methodology assigns a percentage of likeliness to vote D to each seat and just averages them out, assuming that they're independent variables...this obviously isn't true. If you have two seats, one that's 50% likely to vote D and one that's 40%, then by their standards there's a 20% chance of Democrats winning both when if they win the 40% seat they're far more likely than 50% to win the other. Similarly if you have five seats each ranked at 85% D, then that means they consider there to be a >50% chance that at least one votes Republican in a neutral election (about 56% if you take 0.85 to the fifth power), ignoring that that really just means all are safe outside of a rather nasty wave election or a very flawed or scandal-ridden candidate.
Unicameralism time! Surely there must be some way to do the math and work out the optimal number of seats for a fair map.
