Early Voting thread.

[Hope For A New Era]

Really strange mixed picture we're getting. Nevada really not looking good for Dems at all by this point and looking worse every day, but Pennsylvania and Michigan are the complete opposite. Even Ohio is looking strong, though it's still probably not enough to win. Mail ballots up to this point in all three states are far more D than both 2018 and 2020, and a little more D in Wisconsin as well.

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.


As a peculiar side note, apparently Iowa votes so far are like D+21? I can't help but think there must be some kind of error, because that just seems impossible to me. For comparison it was D+5 at the same point in 2018 and at D+9 at the same point in 2020.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think NV is still up for debate. Early in person ends tomorrow, while we get mail-in ballots for the next week, so what will be interesting is what the D total is on Election Day, since you're gonna have at least 4 days (Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue) of only mail-in ballots contributing to the "early vote" total (the one that had D+47k in 2018)

Do not give me false hope.
As far as I'm concerned Nevada is now an R-flip-in-waiting. I've accepted it now, and if we somehow end up in the unlikely scenario of it not happening, I'll be that much happier.

Iowa seems wonky where it's possible you just have a ton of Ds that are voting by mail this year? The total is only like 250k, so it's a pretty low # still compared to the whole total.

Why though? Why would a ton of voters of one party in one state vote by mail this year while nothing like that is happening anywhere else? It really seems like it must be either some kind of data error or a stunning upset on the way, and as much as it saddens me to say it, I hope I don't have to spell out which one of those two possibilities is more likely.

[Hope For A New Era]

I can't help but think of Forumlurker's YouTube comment method prediction from a while back: D enthusiasm in the east, R enthusiasm in the west.

GAS PRICES. I just realized it's probably gas prices causing this.

[Hope For A New Era]

Ralston's prediction is interesting. I want to believe in CCM, I really do, but I'm still a skeptic.

His NV-03 prediction is more confusing to me, though. I'm not totally sure what he's basing that on. Certainly it's possible that Lee could lose, but I struggle see how it happens outside of a "major red wave" scenario. Of course, he's the one "on the ground" there, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he's seeing something that I (and other non-Nevadans) aren't.