anvi
anvikshiki
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Posts: 4,400
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« on: October 23, 2012, 09:16:03 AM » |
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I was rather surprised by the degree of expectation that Dems had of a Kerry win in 2004. I watched polls closely for about a month and a half before election day, and it was fairly obvious, at least to me, that Kerry needed to win Ohio in order to take the race, and, though it was close, a number of factors made that doubtful. So, while I was disappointed Kerry lost, I wasn't surprised at all, and was taken aback by how many Dem friends were totally dumbfounded by it. To be perfectly honest, I think Pubs have a little more "objective" grounds to be optimistic now than Dems had in 2004, since Romney has actually surged in both national and swing state polls in the last three weeks, making it, as Torie put it, a "jump ball." I still tend to think Obama will hold Ohio and Nevada and take a narrow win with less than 300 EVs, but I would not be shocked of Mitt won in a squeaker either--it's really close right now.
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