Forum Dems in denial about 2012

[anvi]

Here is the way I see it at the moment, Kevin.

Definitely no landslide for whoever wins.  I think the election of 2012 will be decided by nine states.  In alphabetical order, they are:

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia

Nine tossup states is less than normal in a modern presidential race.  At this point, I see a good (non-nutter) GOP nominee having the advantage in Ohio and Virginia.  I see Obama having the advantage in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Nevada, though the latter two only narrowly.  The other states are tossups.  Whoever wins will win by a narrow margin.  In fact, even apart from this election, a landslide in modern American politics, given its degree of polarization, would be quite shocking.  (And no, I don't consider Obama's win in 2008 to have been a landslide; McCain got 59 million plus votes, quite a good showing in an exceptionally bad year for the GOP.  It didn't shake out well for McCain on the electoral map, but the most generous characterization I would give Obama's '08 win would be "substantial.")  Who the GOP nominates is really crucial, given how close I think the race will be.  If they don't pick someone who can appeal to moderates and independents, they won't win; if they do, I think they can.  But I do think the GOP will pick a competitive nominee, and so I don't think the general election will be boring at all, I think it will be a nail-biter.