I thought I might get started on working out the partisan effects of the boundary changes for the next election:
KentBoundary Commission reports, maps, etc.The Present LandscapeOf the 17 constituencies in Kent, 10 were taken by the Conservatives at the last election and 7 by Labour.
7 of the Conservative seats can be considered safe (i.e. majority>20%), with the safest being Maidstone and The Weald, held by the well known Ann Widdecombe. The remaining Tory seats are by and large quite solid, with the exception of Gravesham which was the sole Tory gain in the county at the last election.
None of the Labour seats qualify as safe, and the only seat with a halfway decent majority for them is Dover at just short of 5,000. Five of the remaining seats have majorities less than a thousand. Sittingbourne and Sheppey has the smallest majority at a mere 79 votes.
Boundary ChangesNo boundary changes are proposed to either Gravesham or Tonbridge & Malling.
Tonbridge & Malling is a safe Tory seat. Gravesham is a margainal Tory seat.
Thanet SouthAdded to Thanet South:
Cliftonville East (from Thanet North)
Cliftonville West (from Thanet North)
Removed from Thanet South:
Most of Thanet Villages (to Thanet South)
Parts of Middle Deal and Sholden (to Dover)
Parts of North Deal (to Dover)
In 2003, Cliftonville East voted largely Conservative by an average margain of 1433 to 504 votes. Cliftonville West voted narrowly for Labour by an average margain of 549 to 489 votes.
Thanet Villages voted Conservative by an average margain of 611 to 388. Middle Deal and Sholden voted Labour by an average margain of 773 to 668 and 274 (LD) votes. North Deal voted narrowly Conservative by an average margain of 948 to 893 votes.
Given that the Deal deletions have a net effect of ~0 on the partisan nature of the constituency, and the Cliftonville additions have a net positive effect for the Conservatives with only moderate losses in the Thanet Villages ward, it is possible to extrapolate that the net effect of the boundary changes will favour the Conservatives. Since the present majority for the sitting Labour member is a mere 664 votes (1.6%), the seat should now be regarded as notionally Conservative.
Thanet NorthThe loss of the above Cliftonville wards is the only significant loss for this seat, and in compensation it picks the majority of the new Thanet Villages ward as well as the Marshside ward from Canterbury district.
Marshside returned a Labour councillor by a margain of 348 to 321 votes in 2003. Whilst there is a net gain for Labour in the seat, it is not enough to threaten the Conservative 7,500 majority significantly.
CanterburyThe only significant change in this seat is the loss of the Marshside ward, which will make the seat margainally stronger for the Conservatives, but not on any significant level.
DoverThe only changes here are realignments to account for change in local government wards. The changes have no net partisan effect on the constituency.
Folkestone and HytheThis constituency will gain the Saxon Shore ward from the Ashford district at the next election. Whilst results for the Saxon Shore ward are not available, the Folkestone and Ashford constituencies are sufficiently safe for the Tories that its movement from one to the other will have neglible impact on the notional results.
AshfordAs Folkestone and Hythe.
Faversham and Mid KentThe only significant gain here is the Boughton, Monchelsea and Chart Sutton ward in the Maidstone district. Interestingly the councillor is an Independent, so any guess at likely national voting pattern is probably going to be wrong. Regardless, it would not impact the 8,500+ Tory majority.
Sittingbourne and SheppeyThe only significant change of note is the addition of the whole of the Teynham and Lynstead Ward. Whilst I am unable to find past election results for the Ward, it is nonetheless represented by Conservative councillors.
Given that Labour had a bare majority of 79 (0.1%), the addition of even a lean-Tory ward would tip the balance. This seat should be regarded as notionally Conservative.
Rochester and Strood (formerly Medway)
The only changes here are minor boundary changes for re-alignment to the new wards. My reading of the realignment is that Horsted (a small part of Rochester) moves into this seat from Chatham & Aylesford, and possibly bits of the River Ward from Gillingham.
River is margainally Labour, but Rochester South and Horsted is significantly Tory (in spite of a UKIP candidate for the Council seat). The realignment may therefore tip Rochester and Strood as being marginally Tory thanks to another non-existant majority for Labour of 213 (0.5%).
Gillingham and Rainham (formerly Gillingham)
Again, the only changes are minor realignments, but a possible loss of Labour voters in the realignment of the River Ward potentially sees another small Labour majority of just 254 disappear. In sum, I don't think it does manage to create a notional Tory majority, but Labour is probably down to 100-150 votes majority now.
Chatham and AylesfordChatham and Aylesford only underwent minor realignments for ward boundary changes. The most significant of these is the loss of most of Rochester South and Horsted ward, which will remove a small tranche of Tories from the seat. Given a lowish Labour of majority of 2,300, this makes the seat slightly more defendable for them.
DartfordDartford is losing the Farningham, Horton Kirby & South Darenth Ward, and in return is gaining the remainder of the Hartley & Hodsoll Street Ward. Unfortuanely, as in Sittingbourne and Sheppey, I am unable to locate any local election results that might give us some concrete indications.
Both of the Farningham councillors are Liberal Democrats. The Hartley councillors are both Conservatives.
The Labour majority is around 700, so without actual results from those wards, I'm not going to issue a guess.
Tunbridge WellsTunbridge Wells gains the ward of Hawkhurst and Sandhurst, which is strongly conservative. Therefore, this seat retains a strong Tory majority.
Maidstone and The WealdThe loss of Hawkhurst & Sandhurst and Boughton, Monchelsea & Chart Sutton wards may remove some conservative voters from this seat, but its strongly conservative already and thus the notional majority will not be too hardly hit.
Net Result of Boundary changesThe strong Conservative seats are likely to remain so, though must absorb a slight reduction in Tory numbers in some cases, but these have generally benefitted the Tories in the marginals. The only Labour seats with 4 figure notional majorities will remain as Dover and Chatham & Aylesford, and as many as 4 of their marginals may be notionally Conservative at the next election leaving us with a possible division of 14-3 in seats.