EU elections predictions!

[Peter]

UK Predictions

These are my predictions for the upcoming elections; They are broken down by region; I mad my prediction for number of votes in each region first, then calculated the number of seats; From this I have deduced that UKIP will actually be hurt by the reduction in seats from 87 to 78, but will gain in share of the vote.

Top Line Figures:
Conservative - 35.0 - 33
Labour - 24.0 - 22
Liberal Democrats - 16.0 - 10
United Kingdom Indepence Party - 10.0 - 2
Greens - 8.0 - 3
Scottish National Party  - 2
Plaid Cymru - 2

For 1999 figures, click here

[Peter]

I don't think that UKIP will do as well as some polling has suggested, I think my prediction of 10% is fair, but if they start pushing on for 13%, seats will start tumbling as they pick up two seats in some regions. Labour will probably collapse in the South, I reckon they will drop to 4th in the SW and maybe also the SE; The only reason they will stay afloat in London is on Ken Livingstone's coattails.

[Peter]

Where did you get those figures Al?

[Peter]

New EOS Gallup poll for all of the EU:

http://www.eosgallupeurope.com/eosee%202004/index.html

This one actually does not seem to be all that bad...please consider the samples of about 700 and the fact that it's a little dated by now. But for Sweden it seems pretty much spot on.

This seems quite a reasonable prediction for the UK. I would like to know who the Social Democratic Party are though, I thought they disappeared at the back of the 1980s....

[Peter]

The poll is a bit old... it was done before the apparent rise of UKIP...
However the SNP and PC numbers are useful.
---
The SDP merged in the LibDems. IIRC there are still a few councillers elected as "Social Democrats" though.
Welcome to the insane world of "local" politics (stop! I'll start ranting if I don't...)

I am fully aware of the history surrounding the SDP and their continuing presence in Yorkshire(?), but I find it amazing that they polled 1% in the poll despite the fact that they are fielding no candidates.

[Peter]

Worryingly the BNP have polled 126,538 in Yorkshire, thats 8% of the vote.

Oh no

[Peter]

I never expected UKIP to take so many votes off the Tories, I knew that they would take a few, but never enough to win seats, and once you pass 12/13% under this system, then you start picking up loads of seats.