Fritz Election tracker

[Peter]

Ok, so I've redone the entire ballot - listed here for convenience. We need to take into consideration that Jas, Ilikeverin and Lewis Trondheim are technically accepting write-ins. Paradoxically, the F*ing around with preferences by the LNF members, I suspect will end up costing afleitch a Senate seat. He is a victim of the Joe Republic paradox - the order of transfers that will result in his election is very important, and at the moment, the LNF distribution of bizarre preferences has comprimised this.

My first preference count is:
Rowan - 16
Marokai Blue - 13
Fritz - 12
Franzl - 10
afleitch - 6
SPC - 5
Jas - 4
AHDuke - 3
Ilikeverin - 1
Sewer Socialist - 1

[Peter]

I've borrowed from Fritz's tables to aid me...

Total voters: 71, Quota: 12, last vote: Franzl
Round I:

RowanBrandon	16
Fritz	12
Marokai Blue	13
Franzl	10
Afleitch	6
SPC	5
Jas	4
AHDuke99	3
Sewer Socialist	1
Ilikeverin	1

RowanBrandon, Fritz, and Marokai Blue are elected, and their surplus redistributed.

Round II:

RowanBrandon	12
Fritz	12
Marokai Blue	12
SPC	10	(+RowanBrandon votes)
Franzl	10.08	(+Opebo)
Afleitch	6.77	10 of Marokai's votes
Jas	4
AHDuke99	3
Sewer Socialist	1.08	(+Ebowed)
Ilikeverin	1
exhausted	0.08	(Flyers)

Ilikeverin and Sewer Socialist are eliminated.

Round III:

RowanBrandon	12
Fritz	12
Marokai Blue	12
SPC	10
Franzl	10.08
Afleitch	6.85	(+Ebowed)
Jas	6	(+Lewis)
AHDuke99	3
exhausted	0.08

AHDuke99 is eliminated.

Round IV:

RowanBrandon	12
Fritz	12
Marokai Blue	12
SPC	12	(+2 of AHDukes)
Franz	11.08	(+1 of AHDukes)
Afleitch	6.85	(+Bacon King)
Jas	6
exhausted	0.08

SPC is elected. Jas is eliminated.

Round V:

RowanBrandon	12
Fritz	12
Marokai Blue	12
SPC	12
Franzl	12.08
Afleitch	11.85
exhausted	0.08

Franzl is elected by 3/13 of a vote. This will all become useless when the quota increases however

[Peter]

I didn't realize Jas was running as a write-in.  Otherwise, I would have included him.  Ugh.

I don't think he wrote himself in with the intention that others would start following suit, but here we are.

[Peter]

Total voters: 80, Quota: 14, last vote: EarlAW
Round I:

RowanBrandon	16
Marokai Blue	15
Fritz	12
Franzl	11
Afleitch	9
SPC	5
AHDuke99	5
Jas	4
Sewer Socialist	2
EarlAW	1

RowanBrandon, and Marokai Blue are elected, and their surplus redistributed. (Fritz +0.87, Afleitch +0.13, SPC +2)

Round II:

RowanBrandon	14
Marokai Blue	14
Fritz	12.87
Franzl	11
Afleitch	9.13
SPC	7
AHDuke99	5
Jas	4
Sewer Socialist	2
EarlAW	1

Double elimination of EarlAW and Sewer Socialist. (Jas +3)

Round III

RowanBrandon	14
Marokai Blue	14
Fritz	12.87
Franzl	11
Afleitch	9.13
SPC	7
AHDuke99	5
Jas	7

AHDuke eliminated. (SPC +4, Franzl +1)

Round IV

RowanBrandon	14
Marokai Blue	14
Fritz	12.87
Franzl	12
Afleitch	9.13
SPC	11
Jas	7

Jas eliminated (afleitch +6, SPC +1)

Round V

RowanBrandon	14
Marokai Blue	14
Fritz	12.867
Franzl	12
Afleitch	15.133
SPC	12

afleitch elected. There is a suprlus of 1.133 which will materially affect the count. (Franzl +0.749, Fritz +0.309, exhausted 0.075)

Round VI

RowanBrandon	14
Marokai Blue	14
Fritz	13.176
Franzl	12.749
Afleitch	14
SPC	12

Fritz and Franzl are elected without a quota

[Peter]

Please hurry up !!! I can't bear the waiting to see if Fritz gets elected...

It'll take a while. This is not a simple calculation.

Polls close at 11:22 PM EST, about how many voters are left?

This election is held in accordance with Article V of the Constitution, the Proportional Representation Act, and the Consolidated Electoral System Reform Act (as amended).  The  voting booth opens at 12:00am August 21st, 2009 and closes at 11:59pm August 23rd, 2009.

[Peter]

Updated on bottom of Page 2

[Peter]

The count is going to change a lot when someone finally realizes that FloridaRep and AzMagic both registered on August 12th

I haven't bitten on this to date, but I will now

Amendment 26
[...]In order to vote or be a candidate in an election, a person must have been a registered voter seven days before the earliest possible commencement of the election. If a voter changes their state of registration between that time and the election, the state from which they were originally registered shall be the state from which their vote is cast. [...]

The earliest possible commencement of this election was 00:00 Eastern Time on Thursday 20 August. (for clarity, this means the midnight at the beginning of Thursday)

ajc0918
Regional protection party
Oregon

This registration was made 6 days, 22 hours and 22 mins before the earliest possible commencement.

azmagic
Regional protection party
Arizona

This registratino was made 6 days, 21 hours and 52 mins before the earliest possible commencement.

The fact is that the beginning of the election is defined by EST, so therefore, 7 days before it is also defined in EST.

[Peter]

So to sum it up, you are saying that they are legal voters?

Both were registered less than 7 days before earliest possible commencement, therefore both votes won't count.

They will be legal voters at future elections, just not this one.

[Peter]

So right now (after 3 SPC voters and 1 Afleitch), it would be RB, Marokai, SPC, Afleitch and Fritz or Franzl?

Order of election is RB, MB, Afleitch, and then SPC and Fritz without a quota. The difference from SPC to Franzl is decimal though (as in about 0.2-0.4)

[Peter]

I disagree with Fritz's redistribution of the small surplus when they have to be redistributed for a second time. I think Meeker is correct so far.

[Peter]

1 more vote changes the quota. Its what I've been working with, and I assume what the RPP have as well.

[Peter]

Here's an interesting tactical quandry - it looks like Franzl is ahead right now, but if I vote for him, his lead over SPC acutally decreases. How I love STV.

[Peter]

Right - I'm done for tonight. I've made the arithmetic a little easier for every one - a quota of 16 is so much easier to deal with. Only time will tell if I am in the fact the last vote.