izixs
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,278
Political Matrix
E: -8.31, S: -6.51
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« on: October 27, 2018, 04:45:29 PM » |
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One of the things that I think about each election is the habit of the early vote to 'cannibalize' the election day vote. In some states the rate for each party there is steady most elections, but not in others, especially in states where the rate of early voting is changing drastically over time.
To a degree in most states, early voters tend towards reliable partisans or habitual voters who have specific reasons for not being able to wait till election day, as well as a spatter of folks encouraged to take it up as part of GOTV efforts. So one might be able to surmise that the early vote is more closely related to the 'base' of each party in terms of size and strength than it is what the end out come will be. This assertion would be less true in states with most or all mail in balloting naturally or places with high restrictions on early voting that prevent one or both parties from getting in early. So under this view, then some large section of the party bases will have already voted by election day, and a larger portion of those who vote on election day will be the fringe, indie, now, and occasional voters. In other words, the folks most up for being swayed by late breaking events and news. And who are perhaps less likely to even show up in a normal midterm year.
And so the question should not be if the bases of the partys are showing up (they obviously are) but if anyone else will along with. And if so, who. I'm half expecting election day turnout to not be as high as the early vote suggests at this point.
Not to say I don't find all the early voting reports interesting and exciting. I enjoy my election data drug as much as the rest of you. But I suppose keeping all of this in mind, this division of the who of likely voters, it keeps me from getting too excited one way or another.
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