the anti-state folks can split hairs all they like, but the writing is on the wall that Puerto Rico wants to get going on this and I suspect the statehood push will only get stronger with time.
With the current governor on their side I would say the anti-statehood side has the advantage right now.
The 2012 referendum had more people voting for statehood (on question 2 at ~824k votes) than voting to maintain status (on question 1 at ~817k votes). The vote on question 1 alone should be enough for a straight up clean vote on statehood and I'm confident the pro-statehood folks would run away with it given the lopsided margin on question 2. The status quo is not agreeable to most Puerto Ricans, and they seem to like statehood as the best alternative.
As is, the games being played with these referendums with the variety of options is just delaying things and not actually giving voice to the desire of Puerto Rico for change. As for the 'anti-statehood' governor, I'd be surprised if his support came only from those against statehood and not other issues that matter to Puerto Rico. Not everyone is a single issue voter. So citing that election result is a distraction and not proof of the 'split electorate' conjecture.
But you can go and believe what ever you like. I'm going to stick with an evidence based reality though.
I'm also confused why some folks are so anti-statehood on the forum here (and in other places of the internet). Isn't giving voice to people in their own government a good thing?
