wasn't Lulz number (7)?!?!
The past has been altered but events since then have not! The timeline is on the verge of collapse!
I mean...
In the scenario, Romney is already at an advantage as the narrative is forming that Iowa's republicans are hard core religious conservative types (I grew up there, that seems to be the case form those I've run across on the average) and so a win in Iowa by anyone who isn't cast as the moderate in the race can be painted as unelectable in the general. So at the worst, Bachmann's win in Iowa could be a wash for her overall chances and on its own doesn't help Romney, but Romney winning NH would be a win for him as it would be a fools errand to try to cast the electorate of NH republicans as to moderate. It would basically mean they loose the state in the general as its a combination of being partially true which will also miff the republicans in NH and the fact that a large fraction of those who will be voting in the republican primary here will be indies. And they don't much like being painted as not mattering to a party when they bothered to show up to vote in that party's primary.
On the other hand, if the narrative about Iowa changes or Romney falls way behind there to not be in the top group, then its a setup similar to 2008. The question is, which party is the parallel?
There's also the matter of timing. If NV and SC are on the same day then SC gets the news no matter who wins, but if NV comes even a couple days ahead of time, a state that barring surprises to this scenario should be an easy win for Romney which can put him in a very strong position in SC. With at least a couple wins under his belt and Bachman with just one, the hard right folks might be looking for alternatives to Bachmann if there's any in the running (Cain perhaps or Pawlenty if he becomes more interesting to anyone and runs to the right). A split like that can let Romney win the moderate + we want someone who can win vote and take SC and then later states.
This suggests a strong lean towards Romney for the ultimate success story here. But if Bachmann's win in Iowa is strong enough to have most the circus leave and its down to two front runners (plus Paul and the 'who's that guy?' crowd), then Bachmann can take SC and Romney needs a big win in later contests. But to figure the situation there kind of needs the primary schedule to stop changing, which won't be done until its almost time to start.
