Israel 2009

[Yamor]

It's extremely difficult to predict. It will be very difficult for Likud to make a coalition with only rightist factions, since the ultra-orthodox parties are unlikely to join a government with Yisrael Beiteinu, and excluding either one wouldn't leave you with a majority. Who from outside the right is most likely to join? I'd say Labor are most likely, but you never know.
In the unlikely scenario that Kadima win the elections (or at least get asked by the President to form a government) then they'd almost certainly aim to include Labor, and then reach a majority with the ultra-orthodox parties.

[Yamor]

Yisrael Beiteinu are a secular right party, and can be seen as an alternative to Likud. (Remember, the whole right has been strengthened as a result of the recent fighting, and people are anxious to vote for parties unwilling to give up land which could threaten Israeli's security.) Also, they are a good choice for secular Israeli's who voted Shas in the past, but are now disillusioned with Shas' religious policies and 'money-grabbing' tactics. That's my guess as to why YB are doing well.

[Yamor]

It's normally around 2%, which would mean about 2-3 seats. Polls are notoriously poor in Israel though, and coupled with the fact that there were a high percentage of voters who hadn't decided who to vote for as late as the weekend, we could see some suprises. From speaking to people in the street, I have a feeling that Yisrael Beiteinu will do even better then the polls suggest.

[Yamor]

Could be anything except Defence Minister.

[Yamor]

That's correct. Expect early results a few hours later.

[Yamor]

I know Israel, but I don't know you, sorry!

[Yamor]

Shas are being given 9-11.

[Yamor]

The question is, even if Kadima win, if it's only one or two seats, and most parties recommend that bibi should try and create a coalition, what will Peres do? If he decides to ask bibi, some analysts say Livni may have a case to go to court, because of the precedent of always asking the largest party to form a coalition.

[Yamor]

With over 90% counted, it's 29-27-15-13-11. Then you have NU, Hadash, UAL, UTJ with 4, and Bayit Yehudi, Balad, Meretz with 3.
Remember, soldiers votes only get counted on Thursday.

[Yamor]

With basically all votes counted (excluding soldiers and diplomats), Kadima have lost one seat, which went to the UAL. That'd mean only one seat difference at the top, and 12 seats for the Arab parties.

[Yamor]

I wouldn't criticise Shas just yet. Of course they won't mind sitting with Lieberman if they get him to back down from his policies of civil marriage etc. After all, that was why they were so against him in the campaign. If they don't get him to back down, I don't believe they'll join a coalition with him.
Anothe point to remember is that although Shas are definitely against his policies, if they see that they can't stop it, then it makes perfect sense for them to compromise and get what they can.

[Yamor]

It's going to be interesting next Tuesday, when Olmert ceases to be an MK. It'll be the first time the PM hasn't been one. There are actually legal experts saying he can't even continue to be caretaker PM from then.

[Yamor]

Looking more certain that Peres will have to ask Bibi to form the government. Lieberman today met with the president, and recommended he ask Bibi to form the government on condition he forms a broad coalition, preferably including all three parties (Kadima, Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu).
Kadima however released a statement that they'd prefer to sit in opposition rather then join a Likud-led government.
In other news, a high-ranked Kadima guy said he cannot see Kadima being in any sort of coalition with Shas.

[Yamor]

Peres is meeting Bibi in half an hour (2:15 IST) to give him the mandate to form the government.

[Yamor]

By the way, Lieberman is nowhere near as far-right as people think. He does for example think that parts of Jerusalem can be given to the Palestinians. His two main right-wing policies are 'land-for-land' instead of 'land-for-peace', and that all Israelis have to swear allegiance to the country. He also wants Israeli Arabs to voluntarily move to the eventual Palestinian state.
He does want peace, and does agree there should be a Palestinian state, unlike how some news organisations make out.

[Yamor]

Again, all Lieberman wants is to exchange Israeli-Arab areas for West Bank areas which contain Jews. He has never said he only wants Jews in Israel. It just makes sense when creating a two-state solution to have the Arabs in one state, and the Jews in the other.
If you want far-right in Israel, look at the Ichud Leumi and Bayit Yehudi parties. They are real far right wing, even without their religious stance.

[Yamor]

Correct. He is definitely further right then Likud, but people have to remember he too wants peace talks to continue, and is willing to give up land (unlike the Zionist religious parties). In fact, on the status of Jerusalem, he is more open then some of the mainstream parties.
Some of the media make out he refuses to recognize the PA, is unwilling to talk, and unwilling to concede land. That's complete rubbish.