I think he'll be re-elected probably like Clinton was, status-quo style.
By 2012, assuming no major blips, the economy will have improved, and justified or not, Obama can take credit for it. Most serious Republican contenders will wait for 2016. I hope that whoever we nominate can lose respectably somewhere around 4%. Until we know who the GOP nominee is, here is my map.
Indiana I think was a fluke, and if the Nebraska legislature makes it winner-take-all, then NE-2 automatically goes GOP.
Missouri is the most obvious one of the McCain states to switch, as would be Arizona without McCain.
North Carolina will probably vote for Obama again as will Virginia.
I can't see Obama making enough gains into Georgia to flip it, nor Texas. Montana and South Dakota tend to be anti-incumbent, so I kept those GOP.
I pretty much agree with your map as being the best case reasonable scenario for Obama. I agree that Indiana probably is a bit of a fluke and Montana probably won't be as friendly towards Obama in four years.
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