RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,834
Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
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« on: June 22, 2009, 09:32:19 PM » |
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Technically, there is no such thing as an unwinnable state; it merely takes a large enough victory in the popular vote. That said, certain states are virtually unwinnable.
The largest landslide ever recorded in the popular vote was a margin of 26.17% in 1920, and the largest since the Great Depression was 23.15% in 1972. The only Obama states safe from a Republican landslide of either proportion, adjusting 2008's margin, are Hawaii and Vermont. Of course, Hawaii would have been much closer had Obama not been the Democratic nominee, so I would say the only virtually unwinnable state for the Republicans is Vermont.
That said, several other states are close to virtually unwinnable, such as Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois, Delaware, and California, though each could switch in something short of an unprecedented landslide.
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