Washington state megathread

[RI]

I'm going through the Pullman precinct results more carefully. It seems the high-growth, cookie-cutter suburban developments in the west of town saw the best turnout, either essentially flat or even up. These areas have seen rapid building and quickly climbing property values; as SEL's expanded, the engineers have been buying them up like crazy as it's pretty much the only such area in town. Unsurprisingly, this area saw a large swing against Trump compared to 2012.

Turnout was down on campus, but not uniformly so. There was a massive turnout decline (so far) in the dorm precincts on the south side of campus and a slightly smaller, although still large, drop-off in the Greek Row area on the north side of campus (Greek Row featured Johnson's second best performance in town). A couple apartment complex areas to the east and northeast side of campus actually swung toward Trump with relatively small turnout declines, particularly the area around Banyans Golf Club; not many people live out on the east side of town, however.

The more heavily Mormon apartment complexes on the northeast side of town swung moderately toward Hillary, but only because Trump's share crashed there; Hillary's proportion stayed constant from 2012 to 2016, but Johnson did his best of anywhere in town here (tied Trump for second), although these numbers don't include the write-ins, which I believe were notable here.

Off-campus, there was also a strong swing to Hillary in the area to the north of town that's been undergoing large-scale apartment building. Even though the area is almost entirely students, turnout compared to 2012 wasn't awful there due to a relatively large population increase. The area is fairly East Asian as of 2010, but I suspect the proportion may have declined since then with an influx of white and Arab students in the new developments.

Just north of this is a precinct that is a weird mix of SEL-types, Mormons, and pet-friendly students. Johnson got this third and final >10% performance here, although turnout was quite down from 2012. SEL's been buying up lots of land here to build a second facility for the next phase of their expansion.

Military Hill on the northwest side of town saw rather stable turnout from 2012 and a much smaller swing than the rest of town. This isn't overly surprising as the area is mostly townie-types in older neighborhoods who keep themselves separate from the WSU student areas. Most professors and administrators live on either Sunnyside Hill (which saw a strong swing to Clinton and relatively strong turnout) or on Pioneer Hill (which saw a modest swing to Clinton and relatively strong turnout), but not as much on Military Hill.

[RI]

Write-ins in the presidential race are up to 2.75% on this site now, meaning they'll appear when you mouse over the state. In general, third parties/write-ins have been doing well in the "post-game."

[RI]

WA President (purple = write-ins):

[RI]

Here's a quick, somewhat crude attempt at a presidential swing map:

[RI]

^ That is fantastic.  Possible to post zooms in on the Seattle metro, Vancouver, Spokane, and the Tri-Cities?

I tidied up the map a bit by using 2012 lines in some cases.

Seattle metro:


Spokane:


Tri-Cities:


Vancouver:

[RI]

Results by CD for downballot statewide races:

Senate
WA-01: Murray 56.3, Vance 43.7
WA-02: Murray 61.3, Vance 38.7
WA-03: Vance 50.5, Murray 49.5
WA-04: Vance 55.8, Murray 44.2
WA-05: Vance 52.2, Murray 47.8
WA-06: Murray 58.2, Vance 41.8
WA-07: Murray 82.6, Vance 17.4
WA-08: Murray 51.7, Vance 48.3
WA-09: Murray 72.1, Vance 27.9
WA-10: Murray 57.7, Vance 42.3

Governor
WA-01: Inslee 51.3, Bryant 48.7
WA-02: Inslee 56.8, Bryant 43.2
WA-03: Bryant 54.9, Inslee 45.1
WA-04: Bryant 60.2, Inslee 39.8
WA-05: Bryant 56.0, Inslee 44.0
WA-06: Inslee 53.8, Bryant 46.2
WA-07: Inslee 78.3, Bryant 21.7
WA-08: Bryant 53.7, Inslee 46.3
WA-09: Inslee 67.2, Bryant 32.8
WA-10: Inslee 52.5, Bryant 47.5

Lt. Governor
WA-01: Habib 53.2, McClendon 46.8
WA-02: Habib 57.8, McClendon 42.2
WA-03: McClendon 55.7, Habib 44.3
WA-04: McClendon 64.2, Habib 35.8
WA-05: McClendon 59.3, Habib 40.7
WA-06: Habib 53.3, McClendon 46.7
WA-07: Habib 80.8, McClendon 19.2
WA-08: McClendon 53.6, Habib 46.4
WA-09: Habib 69.0, McClendon 31.0
WA-10: Habib 52.6, McClendon 47.4

Secretary of State
WA-01: Wyman 57.7, Podlodowski 42.3
WA-02: Wyman 51.2, Podlodowski 48.8
WA-03: Wyman 62.8, Podlodowski 37.2
WA-04: Wyman 70.0, Podlodowski 30.0
WA-05: Wyman 65.4, Podlodowski 34.6
WA-06: Wyman 55.5, Podlodowski 44.5
WA-07: Podlodowski 69.5, Wyman 30.5
WA-08: Wyman 62.2, Podlodowski 37.8
WA-09: Podlodowski 58.1, Wyman 41.9
WA-10: Wyman 59.0, Podlodowski 41.0

Treasurer
WA-01: Davidson 57.0, Waite 43.0
WA-02: Davidson 56.9, Waite 43.1
WA-03: Davidson 56.3, Waite 43.7
WA-04: Davidson 61.5, Waite 38.5
WA-05: Davidson 58.6, Waite 41.4
WA-06: Davidson 54.7, Waite 45.3
WA-07: Davidson 65.7, Waite 34.3
WA-08: Davidson 56.0, Waite 44.0
WA-09: Davidson 58.6, Waite 41.4
WA-10: Davidson 55.5, Waite 44.5

Auditor
WA-01: Miloscia 51.7, McCarthy 48.3
WA-02: McCarthy 55.3, Miloscia 44.7
WA-03: Miloscia 55.1, McCarthy 44.9
WA-04: Miloscia 61.8, McCarthy 38.2
WA-05: Miloscia 58.0, McCarthy 42.0
WA-06: McCarthy 53.0, Miloscia 47.0
WA-07: McCarthy 74.4, Miloscia 25.6
WA-08: Miloscia 56.1, McCarthy 43.9
WA-09: McCarthy 62.8, Miloscia 37.2
WA-10: McCarthy 52.9, Miloscia 47.1

Attorney General
WA-01: Ferguson 65.2, Trumbull 34.8
WA-02: Ferguson 68.4, Trumbull 31.6
WA-03: Ferguson 59.3, Trumbull 40.7
WA-04: Ferguson 56.3, Trumbull 43.7
WA-05: Ferguson 56.5, Trumbull 43.5
WA-06: Ferguson 66.1, Trumbull 33.9
WA-07: Ferguson 85.6, Trumbull 14.4
WA-08: Ferguson 62.8, Trumbull 37.2
WA-09: Ferguson 77.7, Trumbull 22.3
WA-10: Ferguson 66.3, Trumbull 33.7

CPL
WA-01: Franz 51.0, McLaughlin 49.0
WA-02: Franz 56.1, McLaughlin 43.9
WA-03: McLaughlin 55.9, Franz 44.1
WA-04: McLaughlin 65.8, Franz 34.2
WA-05: McLaughlin 61.3, Franz 38.7
WA-06: Franz 52.2, McLaughlin 47.8
WA-07: Franz 80.5, McLaughlin 19.5
WA-08: McLaughlin 54.4, Franz 45.6
WA-09: Franz 67.8, McLaughlin 32.2
WA-10: Franz 51.5, McLaughlin 48.5

SPI
WA-01: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-02: Jones 52.2, Reykdal 47.8
WA-03: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-04: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-05: Jones 51.3, Reykdal 48.7
WA-06: Jones 50.8, Reykdal 49.2
WA-07: Reykdal 56.6, Jones 43.4
WA-08: Reykdal 50.4, Jones 49.6
WA-09: Jones 52.8, Reykdal 47.2
WA-10: Reykdal 52.6, Jones 47.4

Insurance Commissioner
WA-01: Kreidler 56.1, Schrock 43.9
WA-02: Kreidler 60.7, Schrock 39.3
WA-03: Schrock 51.9, Kreidler 48.1
WA-04: Schrock 59.0, Kreidler 41.0
WA-05: Schrock 55.4, Kreidler 44.6
WA-06: Kreidler 58.3, Schrock 41.7
WA-07: Kreidler 83.1, Schrock 16.9
WA-08: Kreidler 51.4, Schrock 48.6
WA-09: Kreidler 72.3, Schrock 27.7
WA-10: Kreidler 58.9, Schrock 41.1

[RI]

I-1433
WA-01: Yes 55.7, No 44.3
WA-02: Yes 61.1, No 38.9
WA-03: Yes 51.7, No 48.3
WA-04: No 58.8, Yes 41.2
WA-05: No 57.4, Yes 42.6
WA-06: Yes 57.4, No 42.6
WA-07: Yes 77.6, No 22.4
WA-08: Yes 52.2, No 47.8
WA-09: Yes 70.0, No 30.0
WA-10: Yes 57.1, No 42.9

I-1464
WA-01: No 56.8, Yes 43.2
WA-02: No 50.7, Yes 49.3
WA-03: No 61.5, Yes 38.5
WA-04: No 63.7, Yes 36.3
WA-05: No 59.4, Yes 40.6
WA-06: No 52.8, Yes 47.2
WA-07: Yes 61.1, No 38.9
WA-08: No 57.6, Yes 42.4
WA-09: Yes 52.5, No 47.5
WA-10: No 53.7, Yes 46.3

I-1491
WA-01: Yes 69.1, No 30.9
WA-02: Yes 71.7, No 28.3
WA-03: Yes 60.1, No 39.9
WA-04: Yes 54.9, No 45.1
WA-05: Yes 59.3, No 40.7
WA-06: Yes 68.4, No 31.6
WA-07: Yes 87.3, No 12.7
WA-08: Yes 66.4, No 33.6
WA-09: Yes 80.4, No 19.6
WA-10: Yes 68.5, No 31.5

I-1501
WA-01: Yes 68.2, No 31.8
WA-02: Yes 74.0, No 26.0
WA-03: Yes 72.4, No 27.6
WA-04: Yes 69.6, No 30.4
WA-05: Yes 70.2, No 29.8
WA-06: Yes 74.8, No 25.2
WA-07: Yes 61.5, No 38.5
WA-08: Yes 72.0, No 28.0
WA-09: Yes 70.6, No 29.4
WA-10: Yes 75.8, No 24.2

I-732
WA-01: No 60.1, Yes 39.9
WA-02: No 55.9, Yes 44.1
WA-03: No 67.0, Yes 33.0
WA-04: No 70.4, Yes 29.6
WA-05: No 68.4, Yes 31.6
WA-06: No 60.5, Yes 39.5
WA-07: Yes 59.5, No 40.5
WA-08: No 64.6, Yes 35.4
WA-09: No 50.3, Yes 49.7
WA-10: No 61.4, Yes 38.6

I-735
WA-01: Yes 60.1, No 39.9
WA-02: Yes 66.3, No 33.7
WA-03: Yes 58.3, No 41.7
WA-04: Yes 51.7, No 48.3
WA-05: Yes 54.9, No 45.1
WA-06: Yes 64.7, No 35.3
WA-07: Yes 77.3, No 22.7
WA-08: Yes 57.3, No 42.7
WA-09: Yes 69.1, No 30.9
WA-10: Yes 62.5, No 37.5

[RI]

Precinct maps incoming! I'm just going to link to them as the page would probably overload otherwise:

US Senator
Governor
Lt. Governor
Secretary of State
State Treasurer (Blue is Davidson)
State Auditor
Attorney General
Commissioner of Public Lands
Superintendent of Public Instruction (Purple is Reykdal)
Insurance Commissioner
WA-01
WA-02
WA-03 (need to fix this one)
WA-04
WA-05
WA-06
WA-07 (Red is Jayapal)
WA-08
WA-09
WA-10

Initiative maps will be in a subsequent post.

[RI]

I'd probably vote for Baumgartner if he ran. Pakootas is okay, but he'll never win this district.

[RI]

Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

[RI]

Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

How so?

I emailed the state party a few times looking for caucus data, and when I reached him, he basically said I was wasting my time as the data was pointless anyway. Never gotten that type of response before or since.

[RI]

Eastern WA had its coldest January in nearly 40 years. It sucks over here.

[RI]

One solution to this is to just raise the minimum wage, although there's only so much that can be done in that realm.

Raising the minimum wage won't help much at all on this front and may actually make it worse through increasing demand.

[RI]

Apparently the Brits over at The Guardian wrote a piece about how Spokane sucks and has no hope but Gonzaga basketball. The Spokesman Review ripped them a new one.

[RI]

So, uh, yeah...

[RI]

Spokesman-Review wrote an article about my maps.

[RI]

The fact were talking about Murray's penis probably means he's toast, right?

[RI]

Eh, Trump isn't that unpopular out here, so CMR being so closely tied to him won't matter that much unless he really tanks in the polls. Plus she's still very popular personally. If anyone's gonna knock her off, I doubt it would be someone so closely tied to Spokane.

[RI]

I'm voting for Cathy McMorris Rogers for the first time this cycle. Really unimpressed by Lisa Brown, both from her town hall at WSU and for how things went down when she left WSU-Spokane.

[RI]

lol Uncle Mover might make the general in my home CD. His voter guide spiel talks about aliens, FEMA camps, "Marshall Law", and Fort Knox gold.

[RI]

Voted "no" on all the initiatives.

[RI]

Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Spokane turnout is high (at least in the suburbs), but it's not even the highest in WA-05. Lincoln County is the highest in the state, and Pend Oreille and Garfield are also above Spokane County.

Meanwhile, turnout in Walla Walla and Whitman is in the toilet so far (granted, WSU students always vote at the last minute).

I posted this yesterday:

A mixed county/LD turnout map:

[RI]

Looks like the carbon tax failed while the other initiatives passed (always count on WA to vote down big taxes). Spokane County appears to have actually voted for Cathy McMoRo. Dino, unsurprisingly, went down in flames while JHB likely survives.

[RI]

uh...

[RI]

Glad to see R-88 was officially rejected. It's pretty rare to see a more "conservative" side eke out an election night victory and then hold on through late arriving ballots.