IA State Fair kernel poll

[RI]

Results from 2015, for the interested: https://sos.iowa.gov/statefair.html

[RI]

The results of last year's Iowa State Fair were pretty damn close to the actual Governor election results: Reynolds+3

And Trump won 55-45 in 2016, which is why the 2020 kernel poll matters, but the 2019 poll is loosely predictive at best

[RI]

Gabbard is doing fairly well

[RI]

Pretty concerning that in a state djt won by 10, dems are winning this kernel count by 4.

- This is an entirely unscientific survey.
- The Republican primary isn’t seriously contested.
- It’s Des Moines.

Also, Trump is doing substantially better despite an uncontested primary than the entire Democratic Party did in the 2015 poll.

[RI]

Can someone please explain why this is an unscientific poll?

The fair attendees seem like a random distribution of Iowa voters.

It's not scientific as people self-select into casting a kernel. Fairgoers vs non-fairgoers is not random, and the fairgoers who cast a kernel compared to fairgoers who do not cast a kernel is not random.

Now, you could make the same argument about traditional polling; the difference is that pollsters try to weigh their sample to account for disparities between their sample and the population. They do this with varying degrees of success.

[RI]

4. The participants can see who other people are voting for, and so can be exposed to outside psychological factors(I.E a Herding Effect)

This one isn't really an issue because the exact same thing happens at the caucuses.