Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[RI]

Sinema barely won the Maricopa County early vote.

[RI]

If Jenny Wilson wins 40+ of the UT Sen. vote she should consider it a victory.

The vote is almost all SLC so far.

[RI]

FL is becoming a lean R state.

[RI]

Did anybody have Ohio senate race being this close?

Nope. Looks like John James' late close in the polls was real, too.

I think the GOP takes both OH and MI if they were open seats.

[RI]

Democrats retain MA-Gov and VT-Gov

Republicans, you mean.

Might as well be Dems

[RI]

Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close.

Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester.

[RI]

Is Jon Tester vulnerable? Also, Arizona is going to be crazy close.

Tester's hope lies in Gallatin County. No where else is likely to be notably pro-Tester.

Not true. Although they're smaller counties, he will likely win Glacier, Blaine, Park, and possibly Roosevelt Counties. Park is Livingston, so that has at least some chance to get him some votes. But yes, he needs to run up the margin in Gallatin as much as possible.

None of those counties have that many votes.

[RI]

Rural counties looking pretty good for Heller.

[RI]

Yeah, I wouldn't write Tester's obituary yet.

[RI]

A Heller victory would be the perfect way to cap off a weird election.

[RI]

Montana is going to be really close, but I think Rosendale might pull it out.

[RI]

If CNN is undercounting MT percents, then Tester likely wins.

[RI]

Worst realistic case for the GOP in the Senate is 53 votes, which is an adequate number as it neutralizes both Collins and Murkowski on future judges.

[RI]

Where do you see the 4,311 number?

[RI]

I think James would have a very good shot at picking off the MI Senate seat in 2020 (as long as Trump is competitive).

[RI]

Thailand would be more fitting than Laos.

[RI]

McSally's lead has increased by about 1,000 votes from some random rural counties.

[RI]

Seems like Marc Elias has major concerns about the significant under voting in Broward county, i.e: Gillum having more votes than Nelson yet Nelson was at the top of the ticket. Which is why he believes a hand recount is so imperative.

It certainly makes sense, no other county seems to have had this issue except Broward.

The reason for the undervoting likely is that the Governor's race was at the top of the ballot while the Senate race was tucked in the lower left corner in Broward County.

[RI]

Also:

[RI]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

[RI]

This is what the Broward ballot looked like: https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_official_sample_ballots,_2018

That's for an election in FL-20, though. If you look at the map, the problems were all in FL-24.

I couldn't find the FL-24 ballot easily online.

[RI]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Regardless of the reason, Broward County election administration is clearly incompetent.

[RI]

Looking at the NYT map, Scott has a 21,986 votes lead.
There are 7 precints to be counted, all in Bay county (where Scott leads 46,595 vs 16,659 with 37/44 counts), so I guess the lead will end up being around 25,000 votes.

There are zero votes left to count in Bay County. The precinct counts are off because Bay County (hit hard by Hurricane Michael) only had six "mega" precincts open as compared to the typical 44 smaller precincts they would have had otherwise. (A lot of typical precinct locations, like schools, etc., were not reopened yet, so they had to consolidate precincts.) Not sure where the 37 figure is coming from but Bay is done.

Remaining votes are all from Broward and maybe some in Palm Beach and Duval (unclear, some people said everything in those two were counted last night, other sources have said there are still some in one or both). They're all mail-in ballots so don't show up in precinct counts.

I wouldn't say zero votes. Bay, as with most counties, has not finished counting provisionals and military ballots: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/CountyReportingStatus

[RI]

A couple notes about the undervote:

Nelson has 10,301 fewer votes in Broward County than Gillum
Scott has 10,647 fewer votes in Broward County than DeSantis

Also, Broward County, as far as I can tell, is not reporting any results on their site for the FL-24 race, but they are reporting results for the uncontested FL-20 race. As far as I can tell, there may not have even been a FL-24 slot on the ballot. CNN reports Hastings with 201,000+ votes in the FL-20 race, but 0 votes for Wilson in the FL-24 race.

[RI]

I broke the results down by precinct, and Nelson has 1784 fewer votes than Gillum in Broward's FL-24 while Scott has 489 fewer votes than DeSantis there. That's 1,295 net votes for Nelson. However, that's ignoring the likely legitimate undervote rate we see elsewhere in the county. Accounting for that lowers Nelson's maximum possible net due to a machine error in FL-24 to right about 1,200 votes.