49 states of county map predictions (user search)
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  49 states of county map predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: 49 states of county map predictions  (Read 3080 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: October 15, 2016, 02:32:03 PM »
Pro-tip: Print screen the maps rather than copying them to avoid the black backgrounds.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2016, 03:36:16 PM »
I made a few maps based on a demographic model I made.

First case I made no overall margin assumptions, and the model came out as a 49-44 Clinton PV win:


Here's a larger 52-42 Clinton win:


And a 47-47 tie (Trump EV win):
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2016, 03:44:17 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on October 16, 2016, 03:39:28 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on October 16, 2016, 03:36:16 PM
I made a few maps based on a demographic model I made.

What assumptions are you making in your model?  Do you weigh by educational status?  Sex?  Age?

I used a bunch of things. Race, education, age, sex, occupations, religion, primary results, housing vacancies, and a few others.
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