TN- MTSU poll (user search)
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Author Topic: TN- MTSU poll  (Read 764 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« on: January 28, 2016, 05:07:20 PM »

Another Southern poll by a shoddy polling firm (University) that shows the Democratic race with huge undecideds. The margin makes sense though, I guess.

I strongly suspect southern white Dems don't want to vote for Clinton or Sanders but have nowhere else to really go.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2016, 05:10:31 PM »

I suspect a lot more than 8% of TN Dems will vote for Trump.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2016, 05:37:40 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2016, 05:43:33 PM by realisticidealist »

I ran some regressions to try a figure out if we could find the "true" results of this poll with everyone in the correct party. Of the 600 people polled, it came out as 308 R, 219 D, 73 I. Using this, I calculated the following, assigning the DK/SE I's in accordance to the overall D/R breakdown:

Trump 37
Cruz 15
Carson 6
Rubio 5
Christie 2
Huckabee/Fiorina/Paul/Kasich 1
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 31

Clinton 48
Sanders 19
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 34
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2016, 06:01:37 PM »

I ran some regressions to try a figure out if we could find the "true" results of this poll with everyone in the correct party. Of the 600 people polled, it came out as 308 R, 219 D, 73 I. Using this, I calculated the following, assigning the DK/SE I's in accordance to the overall D/R breakdown:

Trump 37
Cruz 15
Carson 6
Rubio 5
Christie 2
Huckabee/Fiorina/Paul/Kasich 1
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 31

Clinton 48
Sanders 19
Don't Know/Refused/Someone else 34

Can you do it for this one too?

http://mtsupoll.org/2015/11/06/carson-leads-the-presidential-field-in-tennessee-but-many-still-unsure-and-more-oppose-than-favor-other-top-candidates/

I had some #s from my own calculation, I want to compare.

As far as I can tell, that poll doesn't give a breakdown beyond Trump/Carson/DK and Clinton/Sanders/DK. I don't see any support numbers for Rubio/Cruz/Bush/etc. Is that all the data there is?
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,825


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61

« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2016, 06:18:32 PM »

I don't remember but I think I did 3 equations with 3 variables thing last time.

All right, here's my attempt using all the data I could find:

Carson 31
Trump 21
Unknown 17
DK 31

Clinton 42
Sanders 12
Unknown 17
DK 29
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