Uniform swings

[RI]

No one believes in uniform swings, but there isn't a better way to do it that isn't arbitrary. As Antonio said, there isn't nearly enough data to accurately calculate ceilings and floors and other things that happen in real life.

[RI]

Well, a uniform swing is like any model that doesn't make any more assumptions than the fact that the national vote has changed from last election cycle. As you put more and more variables in, the map changes to a more accurate depiction. This is political science, not Tarot.

Which variables would those be? You could compenstate for home states fairly easily, but past that?

[RI]

Well, a uniform swing is like any model that doesn't make any more assumptions than the fact that the national vote has changed from last election cycle. As you put more and more variables in, the map changes to a more accurate depiction. This is political science, not Tarot.

Which variables would those be? You could compenstate for home states fairly easily, but past that?

I would gather money the candidate's campaign spent on said state, change in unemployment rate, etc.

The first is irrelevant to hypotheticals, but could be used close to an election, and it definitely has an effect. The other I'm not so sure about...