D: 294, R: 244
The ideal Democratic "Whistling Past Dixie" map - a slight message-tweak to give the Democrats a libertarian bent and dropping asinine issues like 'gun control' would be enough to give us this, or something very similar, in a close election.
The book you cite looks like an interesting read, but with all due respect to the author, I'm not so sure that I would consider Virginia a "Southern" state any more. Yes they were certainly part of the confederacy, but in terms of national politics, Virginia is beginning to look more and more like a mid-Atlantic state.