Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[BlueSwan]

I’d be leery of the “deserves reelection” vs “give someone else a chance” numbers if only because someone else could be Generic R, Generic D, or even Santa Claus. It’s a bad number in context, obviously, but it isn’t as informative as we think IMO

This. And we can add general "favourability" as well, which proved a useless metric in the 2016 election.

Approval is a bit more useful, but even that ignores that the election in reality is a binary choice between two candidates.

Frankly, I love polls as much as anybody else, but basically polls don't start to give a solid indication of much until both parties have picked their candidates. But at least we know that the majority disapproves of the terrible president, so in theory, a democrat should be favoured if the candidate is electable.

[BlueSwan]

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

Easy to overinterpret.

a) These people might stay at home.
b) These people might end up hating the democratic candidate even more.
c) These people might vote third party or write-in a candidate.
d) Voter suppression.
e) Last minute partisan come-together.
f) A LOT of people actually said they would never vote for Trump in 2016, but still ended up doing so.

I'm not saying that Trump is winning. He really shouldn't be winning with numbers like these, especially not if the democratic candidate is someone electable. But complacency/overconfidence remains the democrats worst enemy. In 2016, democrats on this forum and elsewhere were all too happy to proclaim the race all over after Khan/McCain/Kovaleski/Kelly/Pussygate. That complacency alone cost us the election (hell, Comey probably wouldn't have sent the letter had he not been confident in Hillary winning). It shouldn't happen again.

[BlueSwan]

Hold up, only 2/3 of the american population believe that the payment of the two women was at the order of Trump? That's new levels of delusional. I mean, I certainly understand that Cohen does not have a lot of credibility, but OF COURSE Trump ordered him. The idea that a lawyer would just pay loads of money to people making such claims without the consent of the guy he is representing is downright ridiculous. I mean Trump has even claimed now that they were paid with Trumps own money....c'mon sheeple.

[BlueSwan]

I'm guessing that evangelical Christians are disproportionately represented among voters without college degrees. Evangelical Christianity looks hostile to college education in contrast to mainline Protestants and to Roman Catholics. People who can believe that the Earth was created in six literal days about 6000 years ago and that there was a literal worldwide flood are not likely to have much academic curiosity. If they attend post-secondary education, then it is eather strictly vocational in purpose or it is likely to end in a quick flunk-out.

That's being very polite about it! ;-)

[BlueSwan]

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump bump--"Don't believe it!! They are outliers!!"

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump fall--(Orgasmic moans)

Why are you so bothered that people don't like this man? LOL.

Maybe because your double standards are so unabashed and obvious...

What’s the double standard exactly?

I’m sorry, but if Obama said even a handful of the things Trump has said I wouldn’t like him either.  If anyone said POWs aren’t war heroes, that is immediately disqualifing, or it should be.

Even a handful? How about just one of the things. I mean, if Obama had said that McCain wasn't a war hero and that people only liked him because he was captured, they would STILL be talking about it on Foxnews 24/7. And I'm not even exaggerating.

[BlueSwan]

Nah, Indiana went for Obama in his near-landslide win in 2008 with the positive effects of the larger Chicago area. With the entire region moving rightwards since then, I don't see Indiana being competitive for democrats in anything other than a true landslide.

[BlueSwan]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

[BlueSwan]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

Yeah Trump will bounce from like 35% approval to like 41%. Useless if his 2020 opponent has way better favorables than him.

Remember that his favourables were absolutely in the tank as well before the 2016 election. Far worse than Hillary's which were also poor. The part of the electorate that disliked both candidates broke heavily for Trump. US elections are a binary choice and Democrats still need to nominate a well-liked and electable candidate that also manage to get out the freakin' vote. That they do this is somewhat likely at this point, but far from certain.

[BlueSwan]

This is typical. A few good polls and suddenly D's on Atlas starts celebrating the inevitable 2020 victory. Sure, there has been a discernible tick down in Trumps numbers over the last couple of weeks. But whatever might have caused it (McCain, Cohen, WH insider, Woodward, etc), there is no particular reason to believe that THIS was the final straw that broke Trump. If the past is any predictor of the future, Trump is likely to bounce back. As long as the economy is strong in 2020 (it may or may not be), Trump will be at least competitive.

His approval rating in the RCP average hasn't reached 45% since February of last year. When did he "bounce back"? His approval ratings have been varying degrees of poor since his first couple months in office.

His 2018 approvals have been noticably less poor in 2018 than they were in 2017.

[BlueSwan]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Oooohh, this one is nice and it is Selzer, not Gravis or ARG.

[BlueSwan]

This poll has Trump at 56-39 in Oklahoma, which seems...oddly low.

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

As someone who goes to school in Norman, I can’t say Trump is popular here on campus from the people I run into with some exceptions.

Key word there is "campus". Trump is not popular amongst people with more than half a brain.

[BlueSwan]

At fivethirtyeight Trumps approval is now at 42,8%, which is the highest since march 2017.

Terrible.

[BlueSwan]

Does anyone want to guess how the President's response to the bombing attempt will affect his approval rating? I don't.

My guess is no effect.

[BlueSwan]

Perhaps people are just taking a break from politics for a bit following the midterms, so we have more undecideds.

Which is a bit crazy. How on earth do you suddenly become "undecided" on Trump. The most divisive president in history.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1084493713768964096

Those are the worst fivethirtyeight numbers for Trump since september and if they get just a teeny bit worse, it will be his worst numbers since last february.

[BlueSwan]

Fivethirtyeight now have Trumps approval below 40 for the first time since september. Perhaps more importantly, his disapproval is over 55 for the first time since last february. We are approaching his terrible 2017 numbers despite the booming economy.

[BlueSwan]

At fivethirtyeight both Trumps approval and disapproval are at their worst for Trump since last january. We are approaching 2017 territory.

[BlueSwan]

Another key state:

Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49

Net: Trump 39, someone else 57

Results

Definitely someone else at 49% is very encouraging. Tough to turn around numbers like that.

[BlueSwan]

I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

I don't think the base is going anywhere. The people abandoning Trump are the soft supporters who probably never liked Trump much to begin with.

[BlueSwan]

If this were any other Republican, or any Democrat, I would say that such a pol was in significant trouble.  If I were an adviser to such a President, I'd be telling him/her of the need to "be Presidential" to pump up the approval ratings by doing some "Presidential" sort of thing or another that would use the advantage of incumbency wisely.  That's not how Trump works.  Trump's skill is to getting other people's approval rating lower than his.

Trump is able to do this because whatever Trump may be, he is not self-righteous.  Grandiose, sometimes.  Narcissistic, yes.  But he's not self-righteous, and people do find that aspect of him refreshing.  So when he calls Warren "Pocahontas", or Cruz "Lyin' Ted", he gets away with this because these folks' self-righteousness annoys people.  Trump cuts their self-aggrandizing down to size, and people like it, even when they don't truly realize that this is what Trump is doing. 

Trump does this more masterfully than any politician I've seen in my lifetime.  Trump is somewhere between 5-10 points less underwater than he appears because of this factor.

I tend to agree with this.

[BlueSwan]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Jan. 27-29, 1500 adults including 1313 RV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Should Trump run for reelection?  Yes 35 (nc), No 53 (+1)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-1)

Should Trump run for reelection?  Yes 40 (nc), No 53 (nc)

Lots of somewhat interesting stuff in that poll for poll junkies. Thanks for the link and I'd advice others to at least skim through it as well.

[BlueSwan]

Someone must have confused Groundhog Day with April Fool's Day.

This bosh has no undecided and one sum at 101%.

Well, Trump won Iowa by more than 9 points in 2016 and the state has been trending right and voted for Joni Ernst, so it's not like these results are off the wall. Also, 101 is just due to rounding, nothing unusual there.

[BlueSwan]

Iowa certainly did not trend Right in the 2018 House election. It looks to have gone back to its usual position toward the political middle. Because it has only six electoral votes, it is unlikely to decide the Presidential election.

Sure there was a big 13-point swing in the house vote in 2018. But still, the GOP retained the governorship and the dems only won by 4 points in the house in a D+8.5 climate, so it's not like it is the dems for the taking in 2020. It probably requires a bit of a semilandslide to win Iowa for the dems in 2020.

[BlueSwan]

Pretty ominous that Trump's numbers haven't improved since the Shutdown. I know the SOTU is today, but the boost from that is pretty ephemeral.

I think the SOTU speech bounce could be significant given the soft support potential Trump has. Every time he goes a few weeks without doing anything immensely stupid (at least to the public knowledge) his numbers tend to improve.

[BlueSwan]

Selzer is a joke these days.

How? During the 2016 race I remember that Selzer had Trump wayy in front in Iowa and everybody thought it was an outlier. Turns out they were right.