How Does Trump Win the IA Caucus?

[BlueSwan]

I strongly disagree with the notion that Iowa doesn't matter for Trump.

The reason why Iowa hasn't mattered much in recent elections is because Iowa, predictably, have gone for an evangelican christian, who noone thought could challenge the establishment candidate anyway.

But Trump is NOT the establishment candidate. Trumps whole image is that he is a "winner". He constantly talks about his poll numbers and about how he's always winning. Losing in Iowa could put a dent in that image and it will be REALLY interesting to see how he handles a defeat.

The way I see it, a Cruz win in Iowa, really opens the door, not so much for Cruz himself, but for an establishment candidate like Christie or Rubio. For this reason alone, the establishment might as well do whatever they can to get that Cruz win (or rather Trump defeat) in Iowa.

If Trump wins Iowa, it is almost game over. Iowa seems to be just about his weakest state in the entire country.