Dick Morris predicts that the GOP will gain BOTH the House and Senate in 2010 (user search)
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  Dick Morris predicts that the GOP will gain BOTH the House and Senate in 2010 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Dick Morris predicts that the GOP will gain BOTH the House and Senate in 2010  (Read 19676 times)
nkpatel1279
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Posts: 1,714
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« on: December 18, 2009, 01:12:34 PM »

2010 US Senate Seats - Democratic seats.
Safe Dem Seats
1)HI-Inouye
2)IN- Bayh
3)MD- Mikulski
4)NY- Schumer
5)ND- Dorgan-assuming Hoeven is not running
6)OR- Wyden
7)VT- Leahy
plus-
potentially competitive seats
1)CA- Boxer
2)WA- Murray
3)WI- Feingold
4)NY- Gillibrand- assuming Rudy or Pataki are not running.

The vulnerable Democratic seats are
1)AR- Lincoln
2)CO- Bennett
3)CT- Dodd
4)DE- OPEN
5)IL- OPEN
6)NV- Reid
7)PA- Specter

Democrats will hold on to IL.  Lose CO,CT,and NV.  AR,DE,and PA are tossups. - We hold onto AR and DE but loose PA.

We pick up MO.  -3 seats. in the US House.
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nkpatel1279
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Posts: 1,714
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2009, 12:25:10 PM »

lets look at the Democrats seats. (AR,CA,CO,CT,DE,HI,IL,IN,MD,NV,NY,NY,ND,OR,PA,VT,WA,and WI) 18 seats. Out of the 18 seats. The following are safe or Dem Favored. (CA-Boxer trounces DeVore or Fiorina, HI-Inouye, IN-Bayh trounces Hostettler, MD-Mikulski, Both NY seats. Schumer and Gillibrand dont have any GOP opponents- Regarding Gillibrand- she will trounce King- If Pataki reconsider- I will move Gillibrand to the lean or Tossup category- which is highly unlikely. ND-Dorgan, OR-Wyden, VT- Leahy, WA-Murray, WI- Feingold- doubtful that Thompson runs. 11 are safe.  That leaves us 7 vulnerable seats.  (AR,CO,CT,DE,IL,NV,and PA). Out of those 7.  The following will remain in the Democratic collumn. (DE-Beau Biden-D narrowly defeats Castle-R. State leans Democrats- Biden is a much stronger candidate than Castle-R. IL- Alexi Giannoulias-D defeats Mark Kirk-R- State leans Democrats- Giannoulias will get alot of help from Obama Whitehouse- The Daley-Madigan-Hynes Machine. NV-Reid-D narrowly defeats whoever the GOP nominates- due to negative campaiging. PA- Specter-D narrowly wins due to huge support in the Philly Area- which offsets losses elsewhere.). The remaining 3 are likely to fall Republican (AR- Lincoln assuming 2010 is a pro GOP year. National Democratic party is highly unpopular in AR. CO- Bennett- due to lack of incumbency-voter are not fimiliar with Bennett.  and state being currently anti Democratic and Anti Obama. CT- Dodd due to high unfavorable rating, scandals and top tier GOP challenger.  2010 will be similar to 2002.
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nkpatel1279
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Posts: 1,714
United States


« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2009, 12:37:12 PM »

In 2002- 2 Democratic Incumbent US Senators lost- not including Torrecelli-NJ who was polling poorly due to ethics- dropped out and was replaced by Lautenberg-NJ who defeated the GOP nominee Forrester. Cleland-GA who lost due to negative campaigning by Saxby Chambliss-GA and GA realigning toward the Republican party.  and Carnahan-MO- appointed US Senator from swing state- facing a top tier Challenger.  Lincoln-AR is in a similar situation as Cleland-GA. AR like most of the Southern States are moving toward the Republican Party.  Bennett-CO is in a similar situation as Carnahan-MO- appointed US Senator from a swing state- Top tier challenger.  Dodd-CT is in a similar situation as Torrecelli-NJ- Dems lose in Dodd-CT stays in the race. If Dodd drops out and gets replaced by Bluemanthal or another Generic Democrat. Dems hold onto CT.
Democrats are going to pick up MO-(Carnahan-D defeats Blunt-R), likely pick up NH( Hodes-D defeats whoever the GOP nominates.), probally pick up OH (Fisher-D defeats Portman-R).
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