Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL?

[nkpatel1279]

In states like California, Connecticut,Delaware, Illinios, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, winning a US Senate  nowadays is tough for Republicans.

In order for a Republican to win a US Senate Seat in these states. The Democrat needs to be unpopular or corrupt.  ie  Dodd-CT during the 2010 Cycle. Moseley Braun-IL during the 1998 Cycle. Torrecelli-NJ during 2002 when he dropped out.


Giannoulias will do well in Chicago- neutralize Kirk's strength in Collar Counties. Turnout in Downstate IL will be low.  This will be like the Hillary-Lazio 2000 NY race.  The biggest question is how well Giannoulias can play in Downstate IL.

[nkpatel1279]

As I mentioned before- The Giannoulias vs Kirk race is going to be like the Hillary Clinton vs Rick Lazio 2000 NY US Senate Race.

Kirk is going to be Rick Lazio- a Moderate to Conservative US Congressman from a Democratic leaning suburban  congressional district. Lazio represented a NYC Suburban Congressional District. Kirk represents a Chicago Suburban Congressional District.
Giannoulias is going to be Hillary Clinton- A polarizing Democratic elected official.

Hillary won the 2000 NY US Senate Race by a 55-42 percent margin by winning NYC with at least 75% of the popular vote.  Cutting into the  Lazio's base in Upstate NY getting at least 45%. and 45% in Long Island.

Giannoulias is going to get at least 75% of the popular vote in Chicago.  (40% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 50% of the popular vote in Chicago Suburbs (20% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 45% of the popular vote in NW and Downstate Illinios (40% of the population.)

Giannoulias is going to win by a 57-42 percent margin.
Giannoulias will have not only Barack Obama, but the Daley Machine, the Madigan Machine, and the Hynes Machine.

If we were to determine the 2010 IL US Senate Race based on Congressional Districts.
Giannoulias will win the CBC Districts 1,2,and 7 with at least 85% of the popular.
Giannoulias will win the CHC District 4 (Guitteriez) by at least 80% of the popular vote.
Giannoulias will get at least 65% of the popular vote in IL-5(Rostenkowski,Blagojovich,and Emanuel) and IL-9(Schakowsky). Northern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 60% of the popular vote in IL-3(Lipinski) Southern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 50% of the popular vote in IL- 10(Kirk's District) and IL-11(Halverson).
Giannoulias will get at least 45% of the popular vote in IL-6,IL-8,IL-13,IL-14 and IL-16- NW Collar County Districts.
Giannoulias will get at least 55% of the popular vote in IL-12(Costello)-Downstate) and IL-17(Lane Evans/Phil Hare)- Rock Island/Springfield District.
Giannoulias will get at least 40% of the popular vote in IL-15(Tim Johnson),IL-18(Ray LaHood, Aaron Schrock,) and IL-19(John Shimkus).

[nkpatel1279]

In 1998 when Carol Mosely Braun narrowly lost to Peter Fitzgerald.
George Ryan narrowly won the Governors Race against Glenn Poshard.
In 2010- The Democratic Nominee ,whether is Pat Quinn or Dan Hynes is going to win the 2010 IL Governors Race by a double digit margin.
In 1998- Republican IL AG Jim Ryan and IL Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka won re-election by a double digit/landslide margin.  The open seats were Secretary of State which Democrat Jesse White won by a landslide margin and Comptroller- which Dan Hynes won by a landslide margin.
2010- Democratic IL AG Lisa Madigan and IL Secretary of State Jesse White are running for re-election- They are going to win by a landslide margin. Which candidate is going to get the most votes statewide.  Regarding the open Treasurer and Comptrollers position. Democrats are going to win both of these positions by a wide margin.
Because Democrats are going to win every statewide elected office in IL- Kirk will have a tough time winning.

[nkpatel1279]

I tend to think otherwise, Dan Seals will bring out minority support and they won't be supporting Kirk.

Why would Seals bring out minority support?  He is running for the House of Representatives.  Most people don't even know who the hell their Congressman is let alone show up to vote in an off year election.

If Seals was running for the US Senate or another Statewide Elected Office than bringing out minority support will be revelant- Seals is running for the US House of Representative from a Suburban Chicago Congressional District- where White Pro Choice Moderates are key to winning the general.  Winning IL-10 is like winning PA-13.

[nkpatel1279]

Again, the key is going to be suburbia around Cooke County.  If Kirk can sweep these votes, which we used to win, but not lately and keep the margin in Cooke to somewhere around 60-40, there's a chance.

A Republican can't come close to winning 40% in Cook County.

Cook County is entirely in IL-1,IL-2,IL-3,IL-4,IL-5,IL-7,and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat- gets over 80% of the popular vote in IL-1,IL-2,IL-4,and IL-7.
A Generic Democrat gets over 70% of the popular vote in IL-5 and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat gets over 60% of the popular vote in IL-3.

A portion of Cook County is in IL-6,IL-8,IL-10,and IL-13.
Peter Roskam's base is DuPage County. 
Melissa Bean overperforms in McHenry and Lake County.
Mark Kirk's base is Lake County
Judy Biggerts base is DuPage and Will County.

A Generic Democrat will get at least  70% of the popular vote in Cook County which consists of 40% of the electorate.  For a Democrat to lose in Statewide- they need to get less than 40% in Downstate IL and Collar Counties.  Carol Moseley Braun lost every County outside of Cook County.