Anyone, but me think that the president will pull it out in Florida?

[sg0508]

I don't know why I feel that way, but I just do. 

[sg0508]

It's a distinct possibility, but I do have trouble imagining Mason Dixon being off by over 6%...

That's why this site is good. You CANNOT look at one poll.  You have to look at all of them.  If you think that Romney is going to win FL by 6%, you're out of your mind.  Look at all the recent polls in the aggregate.  

If the Seniors/youth vote shows up in a big way and if the GOP thinks they've lost and fail to show, the president wins the 29 EVs.

[sg0508]

You can't look at results four years ago and project a state like FL (and VA) because the demographics there are constantly changing and shifting.  A state like ND/SD is easy to model since little ever changes there, but a 2 pt win four years back means little now.  Look at how many new voters there are, changes in the demographics, growth in some areas vs. others.

Again, I wouldn't be shocked if FL isn't called by early Wed and if in the end, the margin is less than one point.