IL: Rasmussen: Kirk now has a 4-point advantage

[sg0508]

Who cares about internal polls?  Those aren't objective. Tend to notice how those "internal" polls are always more favorable to that party/candidate?

[sg0508]

Just do what we used to do back in the good old days when we used to crush the Democrats....win the burbs and win the race.

[sg0508]

That's because Bush Sr. won 40% plus in Cook in 88, when the surburban voters still favored republicans.  He also murdered Dukakis in the suburban collars like Lake County.

It's really not hard to see where the GOP has declined..the suburban, white vote.

The 1988 race is a perfect example.  Bush didn't do as well in rural America, which was unusual, but he made up for it in the burbs.  PA, IL, NJ, CT, MI, CA, MO, DE and even CO were won because of the suburban vote.  Hell, he even put up a good fight in NY (which wasn't unheard of then because of suburbanites like me) and in MA too.

[sg0508]

By the way, it is possible for a conservative to win in IL (i.e Fitzgerald in '98), but that's usually do to a very bad democratic year (this year maybe) or a corrupt incumbent (Moseley-Braun).

If you remember that '98 race, Fitzgerald was up 15 pts and almost blew it in the end.  There was no way he was going to get a 2nd term in 2004, even if Obama wasn't his opponent.

[sg0508]

CA in 1976 was the last real horrah though for the "moderate" leading the ticket.  Although Bush 41 was somewhat moderate, he won CA because of Reagan.  Without Reagan, the pacific rim would have been solidly blue.  Ford also lost a ton of inner counties, but narrowed his losses in LA and killed Carter in Orange County and southern CA to carry the state.

The influx of illegals turned CA blue and (as I'm moving to LA within a year or two), that is a major political issue.  If the illegals get booted, the state would suddenly become very competitive again.

[sg0508]

CA in 1976 was the last real horrah though for the "moderate" leading the ticket.  Although Bush 41 was somewhat moderate, he won CA because of Reagan.  Without Reagan, the pacific rim would have been solidly blue.  Ford also lost a ton of inner counties, but narrowed his losses in LA and killed Carter in Orange County and southern CA to carry the state.

The influx of illegals turned CA blue and (as I'm moving to LA within a year or two), that is a major political issue.  If the illegals get booted, the state would suddenly become very competitive again.

wtf you think illegals vote? Why do Americans believe such ridiculously stupid things?

You're a fool if you think they don't.  It's called fraud.

[sg0508]

It's silly to assume that the Dem margins in California are due to voter fraud.

The illegal population there is a huge reason for the shift in CA over the past two decades, a huge reason.

[sg0508]

Well, this is the year to prove that we're still alive in CA.  There are no excuses.  Find a way to win one of the two major statewide races.  The Governator deal is an anamoly and not a normal circumstance.