The trend in Wisconsin

[sg0508]

Where is this state going over the next 20 years?  There are no major population movements as far as I can tell as well as influxes our outlfluxes of certain demographic groups.  

The GOP always seems to be close here, but can't ever get over the hump.

1) 2000- Gore wins here by less than 1% (Nader hurt the margin).

2) 2004- Kerry pulls an upset win here by less than 1% as Bush was pretty much leading here until the end.  (There were some rumblings that corruption here pushed Kerry over the top, but I have no proof; just discussion with a few that I know in WI).

3) 2006- Jim Doyle was the only democrat in some trouble in the statehouse races in 2006 but Mark Green lost by 7-8 pts.

4) Russ Feingold never wins by overwhelming margins, but always wins.

5) The statehouse looked very promising this year, but now, appears to be a deadheat and after talking to some family in WI, they say the democrats will find a way to keep it yet again and Feingold, who should be under some fire, probably will win by a comfortable, if not overwhelming margin.

Where is this state going?  Like MN, it should be ripe for the GOP and it always seems there for the pickings in these statewide and nat. races, but it always ends up blue.  

[sg0508]

The Dukakis win was likely due to the farm crisis that plagued the region in the 80s.  The same was true in IA.  Reagan was not strong at all in IA or WI in the 84 landslide.