What caused Ford's late charge vs Carter in 1976?

[sg0508]

I know after reading books about that election that Carter was up a ridiculous 62-29% in popular pools after the DNC and of course, that was overinflated by the convention itself, but slowly the polls closed and Carter lead around 55-40 with a few weeks left.

Then, it the last 2-3 weeks, Ford dramatically charged back and the final polls were very similar to the actual results, 50-48%.  He probably stole the Pacific coast states in that charge as well as Maine, CT, NJ and gave him a shot at NY, PA and OH, the three states that cost him the race (besides Hawaii and MS).

What caused the late charge?  Had the election gone on for another few weeks, would Ford have stolen it?

[sg0508]

Try to remember though, that McCarthy gave us a few extra wins that otherwise, we would have lost.

ME, IA, OR come to mind and it almost made the difference in OH.

[sg0508]

Yep.  Sigh.  Dole did help us in the Plains though although Rockefeller would have been a bigger asset to us in the northeast with NY/PA being tough losses.

[sg0508]

I was always surprised how Ford was able to be even close in MS considering the rest of the south was pretty much a blowout, outside of LA and VA, which he won.  The deep south though?

Also, OH would not have been enough.  He needed HI too, or one of the industrial states (PA/NY) to get him over the top.  That's where choosing Dole was a big mistake and how the tough primary did him in.  He had to try to appease the Reagan wing.