Can Romney Still Win?

[pepper11]

The Bain attacks are working. The polls show it.

Here are the last 7 polls tracking the race.

McClatchy/Marist           Obama +2
Rasmussen Tracking        Obama +1
Gallup Tracking                   Tie
Reuters/Ipsos              Obama +6
Wash Times/JZ Analytics   Romney +1
ABC News/Wash Post      Tie
Quinnipiac                        Obama +3

Average: Obama +1.5

The Bain attacks for the most part started in June. Here are the last 7 polls in May.

CNN/Opinion Research   5/29 - 5/31   Obama +3
ABC News/Wash Post   5/17 - 5/20   Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   5/16 - 5/20   Obama +4
Pew Research   5/9 - 6/3                           Obama +7
Rasmussen Reports   5/14 - 5/16           Romney +1
Gallup   5/11 - 5/17                           Romney +1
FOX News   5/13 - 5/15                   Obama +7

Average: Obama +3.1

What polls are you referring to? A Priority USA focus group that showed people don't like Bain? The NBC Swingstate poll that surveyed about 150 people? I don't see how Obama losing 1.5 point since the attacks started cause you to conclude that the attacks worked and the race is over. All the pundits talked about in May was that Obama was done, now Romney is done. Despite the microanalyzing of every day to day political victory, this race has been very steady and very close for the last 3 months and will probably stay that way until November. As a side note, I live in PA and neither campaign is advertising at all. Crossroads had a big buy in May with ads all the time. Since then there have been few if any presidential political ads.

[pepper11]

Wall Street Journal/ABC News Poll
Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
                            NAT.     Toss Ups
Reason to support:    23            16
Reason to oppose:    24            32

That same poll also showed Romney up by 14 with independents. Those that are in the bag for Obama love the attacks. And it probably makes them like Romney and his business record less. But if those 24 (or 32) percent were already going to vote for Obama, who cares. You only get one vote no matter if you are 51% for Obama or 100% for Obama. In the last three ABC/Wash Post polls Obama has gone from +7 to +3 to tie (April, May, July). If attacks like these fire up the base but cause Obama to lose by 14 with independents, I'll take that come November.

[pepper11]

With Ohio, VA, Florida, Colorado all within the margin of error in most recent polling and now with Iowa and even New Mexico close, I think you were right, Romney can no longer win.