2018 New Brunswick election

[the506]

Fredericton & the River Valley

Gagetown-Petitcodiac
When I was at one of the hearings of the electoral boundary commission, one presenter called this riding “the bit that was left over after they drew everything else”. It makes no geographical sense – the Gagetown area, which is economically and culturally tied to Fredericton; the Petitcodiac area is similarly tied to Moncton; with not much but a desolate stretch of the Trans-Canada Highway connecting the two.

Luckily, the economies are similar (a lot of mixed farming and some forestry), and the political culture is similar too. Both sides are very anglo and very Conservative. Ross Wetmore is seeking his 3rd term in the legislature. Brigitte Noel, who works in the Fredericton arts community, is carrying the Liberal banner, and farmer Craig Dykeman is running for the People’s Alliance.
Safe PC

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
This riding is based partly around the town of Oromocto, home of Canada’s largest military base. It also includes the Fredericton suburban neighbourhood of Southwood Park and exurb of Lincoln.

Jody Carr, one of the 3 Carr brothers that have dominated PC politics in the Oromocto area over the last 20 years, isn’t running this time. They had nominated former CPC MP and Lord-era cabinet minister Keith Ashfield as his replacement, but he suddenly passed away in April.

The new Tory candidate is Mary Wilson, who worked as a representative for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business for several years. Retired Colonel John Fife is carrying the Liberal banner, while Craig Rector, son of former COR MLA Ab Rector, is running for the People’s Alliance.
Likely PC

New Maryland-Sunbury
One of several “rurban” ridings in the Fredericton area, New Maryland-Sunbury stretches from the city limits almost to Saint John. Most of the population is in Fredericton/Oromocto suburbs and exurbs like New Maryland, Rusagonis and Geary; it also includes portions of Sunbury and Queens counties south and west of the CFB Gagetown boundary.

It is also part of the Carr fiefdom – after Keith Ashfield left to run federally, Jack Carr (Jody’s twin brother!) succeeded him; after he left in 2014, his older brother Jeff won the seat.  In this election, Jeff Carr’s chief opponent is Liberal Alex Scholten, who runs a chain of convenience stores in the Fredericton area. (Fun fact: during the Alward government, Scholten made a lot of noise in the media about Costco and gas taxes, liquor licenses, etc. After Gallant won, he got quiet about it all of a sudden. Weird, eh?)
Likely PC

Fredericton South
Your humble scribe’s home riding, Fredericton South includes the downtown area, the UNB and St. Thomas campuses, and an inner city area known simply as “the hill”.  As you might expect, it’s more left-leaning than the surrounding areas; for instance, it was the only riding in greater Fredericton to not vote COR in 1991. In 2014, Green leader David Coon won a 4-way battle royale against sitting PC cabinet minister Craig Leonard, ex-Liberal cabinet minister turned NDPer Kelly Lamrock, and a random Liberal candidate Roy Wiggins. Since being elected, Coon has followed the Elizabeth May playbook to the letter, showing up at an exhaustive number of committee meetings, town halls, etc.

The race this time isn’t as heated, but Liberal Susan Holt (former CEO of the local chamber of commerce) has a strong campaign, with PC Scott Smith not far behind. Lawyer Chris Durrant is running for the NDP and seems to have the only real active campaign for that party in the city. The sign war, for what it’s worth, is decidedly in Coon’s favour, and I see no reason to disagree.
Likely Green

Fredericton North
Another of this year’s most closely watched ridings, Fredericton North is made up of most of the middle-class neighbourhood of Nashwaaksis; the more working-class Devon; and the St. Mary’s First Nation. With the exception of the COR surge in 1991 and the close 2003 election, it has voted with the government the rest of the time since single-member ridings were established in 1974.

Deputy premier Stephen Horsman is the only sitting Liberal MLA in the Fredericton area, but came under fire earlier this year for not knowing details about child abuse cases, which fell under another department for which he was responsible. He’s up against Tory Jill Green, the CEO of an IT firm. NDPer Scarlett Tays is the first transgender candidate ever in the province. The sign war is close between Horsman and Green, and the Greens and People’s Alliance both also have strong campaigns that may play spoiler either way. My feeling? As usual, whoever wins the province should win here.
PC-Liberal tossup

Fredericton-Grand Lake
Another “rurban” riding made up of the working-class Fredericton neighbourhoods of Marysville and Barkers Point, some suburban subdivisions along highway 10, the former coal mining town of Minto and the forestry service centre of Chipman.

4 years ago, the top 3 candidates were separated by 73 votes. Tory Pam Lynch narrowly beat People’s Alliance leader Kris Austin, setting up a rematch this year. The poll-by-poll results tell the tale: Austin ran up landslide margins in his hometown of Minto, while getting creamed in the Fredericton parts of the riding where both the PC and Liberal candidates lived. He has to make up ground in the capital city, and Austin’s deciding to hold the party’s campaign launch in Marysville was a sign he knows that. I’ve seen a lot more Austin signs now in the city than I did then, but signs don’t vote.

I wouldn’t completely count out Liberal candidate Wendy Tremblay either, who runs an IT firm in Minto and may eat into Austin’s margin there. If the right-wing vote splits just right, she could squeak through. But in my opinion, Austin has raised his profile just enough to turn this riding purple for the first time.
Leaning PANB

Fredericton-York
This is a rural and exurban riding consisting of the Nashwaak river valley, the Douglas area to the west of Fredericton, and some growing suburban developments within city limits.

Kirk MacDonald has represented most of the area in the legislature for the PCs since 1999. With boundary changes taking away some rural and adding some suburban areas, he scraped by 4 years ago thanks to the Liberals splitting the vote with a surprisingly strong NDP candidate.

His Liberal opponent this time is school principal Amber Bishop. The People’s Alliance is also throwing some heavy muscle into this riding with their candidate Rick DeSaulniers, but this is still MacDonald’s race to lose.
Likely PC

Fredericton West-Hanwell
Home to New Brunswick’s most opportunistic election candidate! Fredericton West-Hanwell stretches from the city’s inner suburbs around Odell Park, through Hanwell and Kingsclear, to the rural cottage areas around Prince William and Yoho Lake. Former NDP leader Dominic Cardy called it a microcosm of the province, which is why he picked this riding to run in 2014. The riding’s demographics were a bad fit for the NDP (lots of old money in the city and camo wearers outside), but he didn’t care. He didn’t win either. Cardy, of course, joined the PCs after he was ousted by the NDP last year.

Who did win was Brian Macdonald, a PC party lifer who was re-elected to his second term.  After winning the nomination this time, he suddenly quit. (Rumour mill says he could go for the CPC nod next year.) So who stepped in to fill the PC void? Dominic Cardy, of course! Given the demographics and the competition (the Liberal candidate is Cindy Miles, wife of former MLA Rick), Cardy should finally get into the legislature - after his 4th try, in his 3rd riding, for his 2nd party.
Likely PC

Carleton-York
This large riding covers virtually the entire rural area between Fredericton and Woodstock, on both sides of the Saint John River. Towns and villages in the riding include Nackawic, Millville, Canterbury, Meductic and Harvey Station. Forestry and energy are the major economic drivers in the riding, including the Mactaquac hydro dam and a large pulp mill in Nackawic. There’s also a small amount of farming. Sabian Cymbals, which should be a familiar name to any rock drummer, is based in Meductic.

Carl Urquhart has been an MLA for the Tories since 2006, and should be easily re-elected. This area has long been one of the heartlands of right-wing populism in the province, and my moles have told me People’s Alliance candidate Gary Lemmon could very well place second.
Safe PC

Carleton
The heart of Carleton County is in this riding, including the towns of Woodstock and Hartland.  This is the southern end of potato country (see below). Several trucking companies are based in the area too, as it is located at the junction of the Trans-Canada Highway and Interstate 95.

Former premier David Alward represented Woodstock in the legislature from 1999 until shortly after his party’s defeat in 2014. PC exec Stewart Fairgrieve comfortably won the by-election, and should comfortably win again this time.

Carleton is also home to the first bozo eruption so far in the campaign, with PANB candidate Stewart Manuel comparing Liberals to Nazis on a Facebook post. Kris Austin has, in his infinite wisdom, decided to keep him on. 
Safe PC

Carleton-Victoria
The northern section of Carleton County and southern section of Victoria County make up this riding, Potato farming is the big industry, with McCain Foods world headquarters located in Florenceville. Forestry is also a big industry and there are several small hydro dams in the riding. Other towns include Bristol, Bath, Centreville, Perth-Andover and Plaster Rock; as well as the Tobique First Nation.

It’s not as Conservative as most of the rest of anglo rural New Brunswick, with Perth-Andover often voting Liberal (thanks to a string of popular local MLAs from the area), and educated left-wingers settling in Florenceville to work for McCain.

In 2014, the Liberal candidate Andrew Harvey survived fraud charges during the campaign to win by 83 votes. The charges were admittedly minor – passing off wood cut from Crown land as being from a private woodlot, and they were dropped with no explanation 10 days before the election. Harvey was named agriculture minister in 2017. Margaret Johnson, a supply teacher by trade, is his Tory opponent. By name recognition alone, Harvey should hold on, but I’m not sure you can count out any rural anglo PC candidate in this political climate.
PC-Liberal tossup

[the506]

CRA: 45-33-10-6-5.

https://cra.ca/liberals-lead-narrows-midway-through-2018-nb-election-campaign/

[the506]

Felt like Higgs was going for a knockout blow but it didn't come off that way.

Other than that and McKenzie not knowing when to shut up, not much happened. Don't see too many minds changing.

[the506]

Interesting how this could shape up to be the 2nd NB election in a row that previews what happens federally the next year. In 2014 Liberals were very up front about using Gallant as a proxy for what works/doesn't with Trudeau.

This time around...a surging PANB only helps the Liberals on the vote split.

[the506]

I really hope the 506 finishes his riding analysis. It would help me analyze our internal polls better

I won't divulge much except to say it looks like there are a few ridings the Greens and PA have a shot outside of the seats they are expected to win in the Fredericton area.

Probably tomorrow!

Spoiler: PA's got a chance on the Miramichi. North shore is all Liberal with some where the PCs have a shot.

[the506]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

[the506]

Not sure if it will help or hurt anyone. Coon wasn't in the CTV debate in 2014 and he did fine.

[the506]

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for, the final installment of the riding profiles.

Northern New Brunswick

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin
In the US, this riding could be considered a gerrymander. The very anglo, very rural Southwest Miramichi valley, including villages like Boiestown, Doaktown and Blackville; is lumped in with the very Acadian area around Bay du Vin and Baie-Sainte-Anne on the eastern coast. Southwest Miramichi was a COR seat back in the day, and the current PC MLA Jake Stewart is very much in that mold.

Stewart is running for his 3rd term in the legislature. The Liberal candidate is former CUPE local president Andy Hardy, who’s had his fair share of conflicts with the Gallant government over the past 4 years. This was also one of the People’s Alliance’s best seats in both 2010 and 2014, and they’re running Doaktown councllor Art O’Donnell. Given the demographics of this riding, he may have a chance.
Likely PC

Miramichi
This riding includes the bulk of the City of Miramichi, one of those amalgamated supercities that were all the rage in Canada in the 90s. The two main population centres inside city limits, Newcastle and Chatham, are about 10 km apart on opposite sides of the Miramichi River. It wasn’t until 2014 that they were joined in the same riding. Chatham (“Canada’s Irish Capital”) is historically Catholic and Liberal, and was Frank McKenna’s seat back in the day. Newcastle was historically more Conservative and Protestant, but more recently elected a string of Liberal MLAs in the 1990s and 2000s.

The current MLA is transportation minister Bill Fraser, who defeated Alward cabinet minister Robert Trevors in a Newcastle vs Chatham battle 4 years ago. Fraser has ties to the now-defunct Liberal-friendly construction firm Atcon, who received millions of dollars in government subsidies in the Graham years before quickly folding. As transportation minister, he’s still given contracts to ex-Atcon employees’ new firms, which has dogged him during the campaign.

The PC candidate is former city councillor Peggy McLean. The People’s Alliance is running Michelle Conroy, a hospital administrative assistant.

Fraser’s scandals could sink him, but the PA looks surprisingly strong and may split the vote. My guess is whoever wins the province will win here.
PC-Liberal tossup

Miramichi Bay-Neguac
Another essentially bilingual (if not trilingual) riding, Miramichi Bay-Neguac includes the pre-amalgamation village of Douglastown, the other anglo rural areas to the north and west of Miramichi; as well as the Neguac area which is culturally part of the Acadian peninsula but still in Miramichi’s Northumberland County. It also includes three large Mi’kmaq nations at Red Bank, Eel Ground and Burnt Church.

Liberal MLA Lisa Harris is seeking her 2nd term, having won her first by knocking off incumbent Tory Serge Robichaud by 11 points. She’s now the minister responsible for seniors’ issues, in an area with a lot of retirees, and one of her big promises is renos to local seniors’ homes. The PC candidate time is Debi Tozer, an executive of a construction firm. I’d give the People’s Alliance candidate Terry Collette a slight chance - if he didn’t have a degree on “holistic nutrition” and post 9/11 conspiracy theories on Facebook.

It should be a closer race than last time, but my guess is the Acadian and First Nations vote will keep Harris in the legislature.
Leaning Liberal

Tracadie-Sheila
This riding is at the southern end of the Acadian Peninsula and is based around, of course, the town of Tracadie.

It’s currently represented by Attorney General Serge Rousselle, a former Université de Moncton dean of law who trounced PC incumbent Claude Landry in a landslide in 2014. But after just one term, Rousselle bowed out of politics in order to seek “a more balanced life”.

Rousselle’s executive assistant Keith Chiasson is taking up the Liberal mantle this time, while Landry is back to carry the PC banner. The math favours the Liberals on the north shore, but it’s not a lock.
Likely Liberal

Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Located at the far northeast corner of the province, this riding includes the town of Shippagan, Lameque and Miscou Islands (including the town of Lamèque), and a string of smaller fishing villages.

It may be the most Conservative francophone riding in the province, with the possible exception of the Edmundston area. It started with the late Jean Gauvin, a former Hatfield cabinet minister once known as “vroom vroom” for his, um, flashy official car choices all on the taxpayer’s dime. His constituents still loved him, and he was one of only 3 PCs to win in 1991. It continued with Paul Robichaud, who served from 1999 to 2014 (and served as Alward’s deputy premier) before he lost by only 44 votes to Liberal Wilfrid Roussel.

This year, Roussel is matched up with Jean Gauvin’s son Robert, who’s spent the last 17 years as an actor and comedian, including bit roles on shows like Smallville. With Jeannot Volpé’s penchant for sticking his foot in his mouth (see below), this may be the Tories’ best chance at a Francophone seat.
PC-Liberal tossup

Caraquet
The town of Caraquet, despite having a population of only 4200, calls itself “la Capitale de l’Acadie”, and has an outsized influence on the Acadian arts and culture scene. The province’s only francophone newspaper L’Acadie Nouvelle is based there, and it has the largest celebration of the Acadians’ national day of August 15. The riding includes the town and several surrounding villages.

The biggest political issue in the area has been the new shipyard in the village of Bas-Caraquet, which was a municipal make-work project that started in 2014 and had to be bailed out by the province in 2016, but is now on its feet.  

Hédard Albert, Caraquet’s Liberal MLA since 2003, has stepped down for health reasons. Juno-nominated musician and entrepreneur Isabelle Theriault is running for the Liberals this time.

Her PC opponent is Caraquet mayor Kevin Haché. Blaine Higgs thought he had a star candidate in Haché, and used his nomination meeting as a photo op to “introduce” himself to the Acadian community with his first-ever speech entirely in French. (The news that he wouldn’t take part in a French debate broke the next day, so out went that narrative.) It should have been a close race on paper, but Higgs’ failings in the francophone community leads me to give this one to Theriault.
Leaning Liberal

Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint Isidore
The boundaries commission, in its infinite wisdom, decided to split the city of Bathurst into two “rurban” ridings. This one merges the mostly Anglophone downtown and east end of the city with the Francophone communities around Allardville and Saint-Isidore.

Incumbent Liberal MLA Denis Landry has been in and out of the legislature several times since he was first elected in the old Centre-Péninsule riding in 1995. Former Bathurst councillor Michelle Branch has the PC nomination; she was one of the incumbents on council that was replaced with 100% new faces in 2016. Jean-Maurice Landry (no relation) has an active campaign for the NDP.

Urban-rural divide? Maybe. My guess? Probably not. The fact that the franco vote is more heavily Liberal than the anglo vote is PC should keep Landry in office.
Likely Liberal

Bathurst West-Beresford
This is the more francophone of the two Bathurst ridings, it also includes the suburban town of Beresford.

Liberal Brian Kenny has been in the legislature since 2003, first when all of Bathurst was in one riding and now in this one. He’s served various posts in both the Graham and Gallant cabinets, most recently as Minister of Education.

I can’t find any sort of biographical info about PC candidate Yvon Landry, which probably isn’t a good sign.
Safe Liberal

Restigouche-Chaleur
This riding includes a string of mostly Acadian fishing villages between Bathurst and Dalhousie. There’s also a seaport and coal-fired power plant in Belledune, which emission targets will force to close by 2030.

It’s a heavily Liberal seat, the NDP even finished 2nd in 2014. Daniel Guitard won his first term 4 years ago, succeeding longtime MLA Roland Haché. With weak PC and NDP candidates this time, Guitard should be easily re-elected.
Safe Liberal

Campbellton-Dalhousie
This riding includes the two largest urban centres in the Restigouche region. Campbellton is the larger of the two and is (slightly) better off economically, but Dalhousie has lost almost all of its large industries over the last 10 years. Campbellton was also the centre of the “free the beer” court case, which surprisingly hasn’t come up as much as I thought in this election.

Donald Arseneault, a Liberal MLA since 2003, quit to become a lobbyist last year. (He also briefly tried to serve as MLA at the same time, which as you can imagine is a big no-no). The Liberal nomination battle this year was probably more exciting than the election will be, with former MP Guy Arseneault winning out over both the mayors of Campbellton and Dalhousie.

Campbellton councillor Diane Cyr is running for the PCs, CUPE rep Therese Tremblay is running for the NDP.
Safe Liberal

Restigouche West
Historically this was one of the most interesting ridings in the province every election. It was made up of two towns of roughly equal size. Kedgwick always voted Liberal, Saint-Quentin always voted PC. The towns were demographically exactly the same, mostly francophone, mostly based on forestry. They voted differently for no other reason but lame regional rivalry. Even during the McKenna sweep in 1987, the margin of victory was only 17 votes. These days, thanks to boundary changes adding the more bilingual towns of Atholville, Tide Head and Balmoral, that effect is diluted, but you can still see it in poll-by-poll results.

(As an aside, and this has nothing to do with the election, just a comment on the ridiculousness of government in this province: along the side of highway 17 in this riding, there is a small monument commemorating the site of New Brunswick’s first provincial park. There’s no park there anymore - it was closed during budget cutbacks in the 90s - but there’s sure a nice monument.)
Liberal incumbent Gilles LePage is seeking his second term in the legislature. Former Saint-Quentin mayor David Moreau is carrying the PC banner and seems to have one of the more active campaigns for them in the north. Documentary filmmaker and Green candidate Charles Theriault won 18% of the vote in 2014 as an independent.
Likely Liberal

Victoria-La Vallée
This riding is centred on the town of Grand Falls, at the northern end of the province’s potato belt. Other towns include the farming community of Drummond and the forestry centre of Saint-Leonard. It’s mostly francophone but with a significant anglo minority.

The race this year is a rematch between one-term incumbent Liberal Chuck Chiasson, and his immediate predecessor, one-term PC Danny Soucy. I’m giving Chiasson the upper hand just based on the Liberals’ province-wide francophone strength.
Likely Liberal

Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Like Bathurst, the boundary commission divided Edmundston into two “rurban” seats for the 2014 election. In this riding, the eastern end of the city is lumped in with the suburb of Saint-Basile and the rural villages of Sainte-Anne and Rivière-Verte.

Edmundston is one of the few places in northern New Brunswick where the economy is doing fine, in fact a CBC report earlier this week mentioned some businesses had the opposite problem – a lack of skilled workers in the area. But Trump’s tariffs may hit the city hard soon, as the city’s largest employer is in a weird position: the Twin Rivers pulp mill is connected by underground pipes to a paper mill right across the river in Madawaska, Maine.

Bernard Valcourt established a beachhead for the PCs in the Madawaska region when he was leader in 1995. Now-Senator Percy Mockler represented the rural part of this riding for several years, and Mado Dubé, who represented the city after Valcourt left provincial politics, served in the cabinets of both Lord and Alward.

Dubé, the last of the francophone class of 1999 for the PCs, is not running this time. The odds-on favourite is now former Liberal MP Jean-Claude d’Amours. Lawyer Gerard Levesque is running for the Tories. If there’s one Liberal pickup from the PCs in the province, this should be it.
Likely Liberal

Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston
Finally, in the far northwest corner of the province, is this riding, made up of the part of Edmundston west of the Madawaska River, the suburbs of Saint-Jacques and Verret, and a string of farming communities along the Saint John River and CN mainline to the west. A large chicken processing plant is located in Clair.

Economic development minister Francine Landry is seeking her second term for the Liberals, but Lord-era cabinet minister Jeannot Volpé is also seeking a return to politics. He publicly criticized Blaine Higgs when Higgs was finance minister for not keeping the deficit under control (to be fair, he was kind of hamstrung by Alward on that), but has kept his mouth shut about him so far on the campaign.

He has not kept his mouth shut about women though….in a radio interview last week, Volpé talked about how he had 3 boys, but would like a girl as a “dish washer”. Landry has taken that quote and plastered it all over social media. It’s getting nasty up there.
PC-Liberal tossup

[the506]

The random PC communities/ridings in otherwise Liberal Acadia are fascinating, if not puzzling. Two neighbour towns vote differently due to a rivalry? wtf?

Welcome to the tribal world of east coast politics.

[the506]

Both Higgs and Gallant were punchier. I think Coon won by default.

[the506]

Nanos: 37-30-12-11-10.

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-1252-Telegraph-Journal-W3-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf

[the506]

This back's up Earl's assertion that the Greens are in the mix in more seats than we first thought. They've released an internal poll showing them in 2nd in Memramcook-Tantramar.
https://twitter.com/matchism/status/1043157434875834368

Just from my view of the lay of the land, I now also wouldn't be surprised if Fredericton North had a weird result too....PC, LIB, GRN and PA could all get 20+%.

As for the People's Alliance....watch out for old COR-country seats like Southwest Miramichi, Albert and Carleton-York. They may now be within spitting distance of the PCs. Not to mention others (Oromocto-Lincoln and several around Saint John) where they may have risen enough to get Liberals elected on a vote split.

[the506]

Mainstreet: 35-29-16-15-3.

Look at those Fredericton numbers: 29-23-23-22.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/nb-liberals-leading-as-election-draws-to-a-close/

[the506]

Yup. I still think the most likely scenario is the Liberals keeping their majority off PA-PC vote splits.

[the506]

With all the recent movement in the polls, I'm going to update my outlook on the ridings....in the case of tossups, the first one listed is what my Elect-O-Matic 3000 (TM) says is going to win. As always, I reserve the right to be wrong:

SAINT JOHN AREA
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins: likely PC
Hampton: likely PC
Quispamsis: safe PC
Rothesay: safe PC
Saint John East: PC-Liberal tossup
Portland-Simonds: leaning PC
Saint John Harbour: Liberal-PC tossup
Saint John Lancaster: PC-Liberal tossup
Kings Centre: PC-Liberal tossup
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West: Liberal-PC tossup
Charlotte-Campobello: leaning PC

FREDERICTON AREA
Gagetown-Petitcodiac: likely PC
Oromocto-Lincoln: Liberal-PC tossup
Fredericton-Grand Lake: likely PANB
New Maryland-Sunbury: PC-Liberal tossup
Fredericton South: likely Green
Fredericton North: Liberal-PC-Green tossup
Fredericton-York: PC-Liberal-PANB tossup
Fredericton West-Hanwell: PC-Liberal tossup
Carleton-York: leaning PC
Carleton: likely PC
Carleton-Victoria: Liberal-PC tossup

MONCTON AREA
Kent North: Liberal-Green tossup
Kent South: likely Liberal
Shediac Bay-Dieppe: safe Liberal
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé: likely Liberal
Memramcook-Tantramar: Liberal-Green tossup
Dieppe: safe Liberal
Moncton East: leaning Liberal
Moncton Centre: Liberal-PC-indy tossup
Moncton South: Liberal-PC tossup
Moncton Northwest: leaning PC
Moncton Southwest: leaning PC
Riverview: safe PC
Albert: leaning PC

NORTH
Restigouche West: likely Liberal
Campbellton-Dalhousie: likely Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur: safe Liberal
Bathurst West-Beresford: safe Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore: safe Liberal
Caraquet: leaning Liberal
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou: PC-Liberal tossup
Tracadie-Sheila: likely Liberal
Miramichi Bay-Neguac: Liberal-PC tossup
Miramichi: PC-Liberal tossup
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin: PC-PANB tossup
Victoria-La Vallée: leaning Liberal
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre: likely Liberal
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston: Liberal-PC tossup

It all adds up to....
Liberal - 25
PC - 22
Green - 1
PANB - 1

[the506]

One last poll from Forum: 36-29-16-14-4.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1057eeda-8d65-48d7-8a72-c4fb93758d9dNb%20final%202018.pdf

[the506]

8 local, 7 ET.

[the506]

Streams:

CBC - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/new-brunswick-election-day-1.4835463
CTV - https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/video?playlistId=1.4106874

[the506]

Chaos scenario.

[the506]

My usual question in these situations: any possibility of a 'grand coalition'?

No. Gallant put the kibosh on that in the last debate.

[the506]

While the horse trading begins, ENB put out the poll-by-poll results out pretty quickly, and they're up on the atlas:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/nb/

Remember St-Quentin, that town in that usually votes Conservative out of spite? It went Green this time. Go figure.

[the506]

Donald Arseneault was probably the most hyper-partisan Liberal MLA in the province. He has no shame.

[the506]

*Maybe* Robert Gauvin if the PCs get too close to the PA. But even then I'm not so sure.

[the506]

All 3 recounts finished (Saint John Harbour, Memramcook-Tantramar, Oromocto-Lincoln). Not a single vote changed.

The tabulators actually worked!

[the506]

Gallant resigning as Liberal leader.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/liberal-leader-brian-gallant-new-brunswick-election-1.4906417