In the Dukakis blowout in 88', the dems lost NJ by 14%. Although this was not a typical election, Dukakis did carry Oregon, West Virginia and the upper-midwest, while losing the mid-atlantic Connecticut and Northern New England. NJ barely chose Clinton over Bush in 92'. I think NJ could be a swing state if the Republicans ran a Northern, or Western candidate who is a social moderate.
One could say, "this isn't your father's Republican party." The GOP has changed a lot since Republicans like Thomas Dewey, or even Gerald Ford, were strong candidates in the North. I agree with what seems to be the consensus here - that Bush won't win NJ unless it's a landslide on par with a 1972 or 1984. In the future, however, a candidate like Guiliani could make it very competitive.
