1976

[dazzleman]

Ford dumped Rockefeller long before he selected Dole.

In late 1975, Ford was facing a challenge from Ronald Reagan for the Republican nomination.  Rockefeller was strongly disliked among conservatives, and Ford dumped Rockefeller in order to appease conservatives and try to forestall Reagan from developing into a serious challenge.  It didn't work.

[dazzleman]

This is a great photo.

Yes, I believe it was taken at the 1976 Republican convention.

[dazzleman]

     Ford would have done better if he had picked Rockefeller instand of Dole. This may have hurt Ford in the Plains states like Kansas and South Dakota and he most likely would have lost Virginia to Carter but would have picked up New York to compenste for those losses.     

The problem was that Ford gave up Rockefeller, and got nothing in return.

He still got a strong challenge from Reagan, and still lost almost the whole south anyway, both in the primaries and the general election.

So the jettisoning of Rockefeller only made Ford look weak and cornered, but brought him nothing positive.

Had he stuck with Rockefeller, he might have done a little better against Carter in the northeast and midwest, and I would venture to guess his chance for victory would have been greater.  Dole didn't add a lot that Ford didn't already have.

[dazzleman]

Given how close the race for the Republican nomination was, isn't it possible that if he hadn't dropped Rockefeller, Ford may have lost the nomination to Reagan altogether?

In which case, Reagan may have lost to Carter in the general, and thus as a result not run again in 1980 (or not have gotten the nomination if he had run).

In which case, perhaps Bush gets the GOP nomination in 1980 and beats Carter.

It's always interesting to contemplate how things might have changed dramatically in the entire time line from one small change.

Good points, Eric, especially the one about how small things can have big ripple effects.

Still, I suspect that those who favored Reagan over Ford found Ford unacceptable because of what Ford did or didn't do as president, not because of who his running mate was.  I doubt very much that dropping Rockefeller really appeased anybody who was already against Ford and gung-ho for Reagan.  It's hard to imagine a Reagan 'true believer' saying, "Oh, I wanted Reagan, but now that Ford dropped Rockefeller, I'll vote for him in the primary."  Yes, Rockefeller was an irritant for conservatives, but their complaints about Ford went far beyond that.