My guess is that Hillary in 2008 would have two possibilities - a "status quo" election - very similar to 2004 and 2000. or a huge and crushing GOP blowout.
Hillary starts with all the Clinton advantages but also all the baggage.
The Clinton era (1992 to 2000) was really the start of "full contact" politics where almost literally anything was acceptable. Sure it was dirty prior to that, but at least there was some resembalance of rules and boundries.
Maybe we blame some of it on the Internet, and 24 hour news, and Newt Gingrich, but certainly Bill and Hillary deserve at least their share of the blame for this.
All during the Clinton Presidency there was always this huge dichotomy in the polls. Clintons JOB approval was generally quite solid (mid to upper 50s) but his PERSONAL approval was typically 15 to 20 points lower.
People saw that the Clinton/Gingrich axis produced some excellent government (PayG0, Welfare Reform EITC, etc) but that there was a level of intensity and, well, real and pure hatred, that could not be anything but unsettling.
Governing the nation should not be a bloodsport.
Hillary, fairly or not, is forever linked to that.
I suspect Hillary could steamroller her way to the Dem nomination, and then I suspect that the General election would depend on the GOP candidate.
If the GOP nominates an "old guard" candidate (Frist, Santorum, Jeb, some "Moral Majority" (sic) clone, etc..) - something that made 2008 essentially another round in the war that started in 1992 - then we get a replay of 2000 and 2004 - Brutal, costly, and basically a draw +/- 3 points either way. I don't expect that "Hatfields Vs McKoys Round 87" will be much different than round 86 or round 88...
If the GOP nominates a legitimately fresh faced outsider MODERATE without all the scars of combat (Think Lamar Alexander with a charisma transplant) then I think Hillary might get killed rather badly.
Great post Vorlon, as always. I agree completely. Hillary's a known quantity, for better or worse (worse if you ask me), and her fate as a candidate, assuming she gets the nomination, depends large on who the Republicans nominate.
I can't see a strong win for Hillary unless the next 4 years are cataclysmic. But I can see a narrow win for Hillary against a weak Republican, or a big defeat for Hillary against a strong Republican.
Don't underestimate the number of people who wouldn't vote for a woman under any circumstances. Some people would say that none of those people would vote for a Democrat anyway, but I don't think that's true. I think some of them are older swing voters who may be economically liberal or populist. Female and minority candidates almost always poll stronger than their actual results, since many people are unwilling to admit to these politically incorrect biases. But it's still out there, and it could hurt Hillary in a close race.
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