First in 88 years?

[dazzleman]

That's an interesting observation.  I hadn't realized it had been that long since there was a close re-election race involving an elected president.

I think it's too soon to tell whether this race will be close.  I think it will be, but things could happen that would open it up a little bit, one way or the other.

The capture of UBL and a strong pickup in jobs could open up a strong lead for Bush, and put a number currently close states out of reach for the Democrats.

On the other hand, if the economy sinks and there are serious problems in Iraq, Bush will be very vulnerable to losing currently close key states, and it could result in a stronger victory for the Democrats.

The big wild card is the effect of a possible terrorist attack in the United States.  The impact could also be affected by the timing - whether it's right before the election, or several weeks or months before, in which case voters would have had some time to think about it before voting.

My feeling is that major problems in Iraq will hurt the president, but a terrorist attack at home would probably help him.  I have noticed that a lot of Democrats I know are now saying that 9/11 was a freak occurrence, and that they're more scared of Bush than they are of terrorists.  This ties in with consistent Democratic thinking since the Vietnam War that all threats to us are within our control, and brought on by our own leaders.  And this is how they justify their anti-defense position.  An attack would rip the rug right out from under this type of thinking, and could open the door to a Bush landslide.  On the other hand, there could be a Spanish-type reaction, but I doubt that.

As I recall, the major issue in 1916 was whether to enter World War I (then called the World War).  There must have been other issues too.  Wilson ran as the "peace" candidate (just as LBJ did in 1964) and ended up taking the country into war almost immediately after his second term started.