KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

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Roger Marshall
36,357   33.8%   

Kris Kobach
26,645   24.8   

Bob Hamilton
22,586   21.0

107,616 votes

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TM PROJECTION: Roger Marshall will defeat Kris Kobach tonight. Tracey Mann and Jake LaTurner will also win.

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I didn't think Marshall would be winning by this much.

Are there signs that the Democratic meddling backfired at the last minute? I’m not saying that this is necessarily what happened and I know that Marshall apparently had a sizable advantage before Democratic outside groups started attacking him, but I didn’t expect this kind of margin either.

I think it backfired and allowed the race to swing back to Marshall. That was my closing line with folks I know.

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My hope is that with GOP vote starting to coalesce, we'll see a poll sometime later this week or next week that has Marshall up high single digits, at which point Democrats will start to shift focus to other places. Don't want to see my airwaves completely flooded for the next ~90 days!

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Well so much for that. On the plus side we won't have to worry about a potential Senator Kobach, and maybe he can go away forever now.

Yeah, I don't know his other options, 26% is a very low statewide number. I suppose he could run for the 3rd district seat in the future, but he'd get slaughtered and he knows it. My guess is he begs for a position in the TRUMP administraiton if he is reelected, otherwise he becomes a lobbyist/media pundit.

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Marshall weighs in on the Harris pick:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1293588053550718980?s=20

Bollier has not yet, but she did receive Harris' endorsement last week and responded to it:
https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1291183961893478401?s=20

Bollier has a new ad on the airwaves featuring former GOP rep Tom Moxley endorsing her. Pretty effective in rural areas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztv7ADlqROg

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Bollier announces endorsements from 75 (former) GOP leaders/representatives. It was impressive when Paul Davis did this in '18, but after Kelly doing it and now Bollier, with the lists all being very close to one another, it loses some of it's effectiveness.

https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1297926914338893824?s=20

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Bollier is really pushing the "Republicans for Bollier" message and the ads work - very impressive. It makes sense she was able to get them to do this and I expect more - she has been a Republican for most of her life and worked very closely with these people, it goes deeper than just "she is willing to work across the aisle" as she was on the same side of the aisle with them for many years. I've heard whispers that Bollier's internals have her ahead right now, but don't know any more at this point.

https://twitter.com/BarbaraBollier/status/1297896508663234560?s=20

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This helps Marshall for certain and his chances of winning are pretty high now. Johnson County won't be voting Democratic, though, it's too far gone for now.

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Interesting that he would endorse Galloway but not Bollier. Maybe he feels like there is nothing to lose in Missouri since she is polling so far down. The De La Isla endorsement will help boost turnout in Lawrence/Douglas County.

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New Bollier ad: Republicans for Trump AND Bollier.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1311009882837901312?s=20

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From an interview today, Bollier seems to be confused/unaware what the Patriot Act is:

https://twitter.com/joe_gierut/status/1313512966663409664?s=21

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I don't think she will lose voters because of this, but in a tight race with just a couple weeks to go, any negative story could be the difference maker with the remaining undecideds.

KC Star has an article on it: https://www.kansascity.com/article246265375.html

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Roger Marshall looks like he will win by double-digits. I always felt confident in his chances, though recent polling and fundraising numbers had me thinking it would be a lot closer.

LaTurner easily holds KS-02 and Davids wins KS-03 by much less than many had predicted.

In the legislature, I haven't seen the full numbers yet, but it looks to be largely a wash - Republicans will have big majorities in both chambers again, possibly a supermajority again in the Senate. Disgraced loser Aaron Coleman, the young Democrat who won in Kansas City, KS with all the scandals, is easily winning tonight with 65%+.