tmthforu94
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,403
Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52
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« on: September 17, 2016, 07:43:37 PM » |
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I agree with you - if Trump wins, Republicans keep the Senate. If Clinton wins by a razor-thin margin, Republicans keep the Senate. If Clinton wins by more than a couple points, it probably flips to the Democrats.
Where are the five pickups if Trump wins? Johnson and Kirk probably still lose, and I imagine the next two would come from Indiana and New Hampshire to get to 50 (I still maintain that Young pulls it out, but say he loses for arguments sake). Who is 51? Burr and Toomey have been running ahead of Trump, and I can't see Trump winning Nevada and Heck losing. Honestly, I think the best shot may be Louisiana. If Trump wins and the Senate is 50-49 D, Democrats can make the argument that a Democratic Senate is needed to keep Trump in check.
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