Official Kansas Megathread

[tmthforu94]

With the Gubernatorial race looking to head down to the wire and also a competitive race for SoS that could change the future dynamics in Kansas, I felt it approrpriate to dedicate an entire thread to the Kansas elections.

Key races:

Gubernatorial:
Paul Davis
Sam Brownback
Jennifer Winn
Keen Umbehr

Secretary of State:
Jean Schodorf
Kris Kobach
Scott Morgan

Insurance Commissioner:
Dennis Anderson
Beverly Gossage
Clark Shultz
Ken Selzer
David Powell
John Toplikar

[tmthforu94]

Here's Paul Davis' campaign intro video, which is fantastic and hits all the right notes.


Here's Jean Schodorf's

According to Schodorf's wiki page she just recently switched parties.

Yeah, she actually ran for Congress down in KS-04 in 2010, placing second to Pompeo. The campaign really highlighted some of her moderate stances, and then in the Great Moderate Purge of 2012, she lost by a landslide in her primary for re-election to the State Senate.

She's not a bad recruit - I'm not particularly fond of party switches but she has a record I generally like and Kobach has been exceptionally awful. I plan on voting for Morgan in the primary - he is pretty qualified but just hasn't been generating a lot of buzz. Kobach used to be the Chair of KSGOP, so not too many big names are defecting.

[tmthforu94]

^That is exactly the kind of context I was missing on her party switch. She sounds like the textbook definition of "The ______ party left me" party switching.

I could not find her birthdate, but if she and Davis are successful she would be positioned well to make a bid to succeed him as Gov.

She's in her mid 60's, maybe 64 or 65. If Davis were successful and happened to win re-election she would be 72 or so in 2022, so not a chance.

This is looking far ahead, but if Davis were to win this year, I don't see him surviving in 2018. He's going to face a tough time in the legislature and if Hillary wins in 2016, 2018 will likely be a favorable year to Republicans. His one saving grace is that Kris Kobach would likely be his opponent.

[tmthforu94]

Rick Santorum campaigned today with Brownback in Johnson County and Wichita...

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Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/2014/07/14/3553376/santorum-free-world-at-stake-in.html#storylink=cpy

Too funny...

[tmthforu94]

http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article751853.html

Former Congresswoman Jan Meyers, who was listed as one of the Republicans endorsing Davis (and mentioned multiple times by other articles/news stations because of her prominent position), stated that she never endorsed Paul Davis, and that if she were to endorse, she would endorse Brownback.

Awk.

[tmthforu94]

Probably just took a little digging - I expect these types of accusations to start as Democrats try to cover.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/paul-davis-kansas-election-2014-109123.html#ixzz382w9nlDx

It started with Meyers, but others instances are coming to light as well. This ploy gave Davis some momentum for a couple days, but the aftermath is starting to backfire on him. Also not included in the article is one of the lead organizers for the "Republicans for Davis" group - photographic evidence unveiled he had yard signs for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Also, Brownback is saying there is a big announcement coming soon...time will tell.

[tmthforu94]

I voted today - begrudgingly voted for Brownback, but chose Morgan over Kobach for SoS. Stuck with Roberts for US Senate (obviously).

[tmthforu94]

Jan Meyers has now endorsed Brownback, who is touting that he is still receiving moderate support

[tmthforu94]

First, I think a large part of the anti-gay bill was an effort to force Davis' hand on the issue, hoping he wouldn't be too vocal and talk about same-sex marriage, which would upset liberals. That being said, the reason I voted for Brownback in the primary was because I ultimately think he is far more competent than Winn would be. I am undecided for the General Election, but if anything I'm leaning towards Davis.

In terms of endorsements, yes, it still isn't great for Brownback. But momentum Davis received for this has been wiped away with all of these revolutions, in addition to the fact that this "group" isn't any sort of official organization and there was no mention that it was paid for by the Davis campaign, which is a campaign violation.

[tmthforu94]

The primary will occur in less than a week. Here is a rundown of what to expect...

Governor's Race - How well will Sam Brownback do? He's likely going to be Jennifer Winn, but the question is by how much? A poll by KSN/SurveyUSA last month had him only up by 18. He has been actively campaigning since, as well as had some ads going, and their poll last week had it at 60-30. How well he does could indicate how well he will do in November - many people who will be voting for Winn (who has ran a surprisingly active campaign) are only doing so out of protest of Brownback and that number will likely reflect what % of the GOP vote Davis can expect in November.

Secretary of State - Kris Kobach is probably going to win here - he is the former state chair of the KSGOP and very popular with the base. Scott Morgan has ran from the left, but he has raised very valid concerns about Kobach that will likely transfer over to the General Election when he faced Schodorf. Almost every newspaper in the state has endorsed Morgan.

Insurance Commissioner - It has been an absolute free-for-all to replace Sandy Praeger. Clark Shultz seems to be the establishment candidates and boasts quite a few endorsements as well as almost all newspapers. That being said, I haven't seen too active of a campaign from him, with little to no signage in eastern Kansas (where most of the votes are). Beverly Gossage  has been running a grassroots campaign for over a year now and seems to be the favorite of many Tea Partiers. Ken Selzer also has a strong base in JoCo and could potentially pull out a squeeker here. I don't see Toplikar or Powell winning, but Powell could pick up a surprising number of votes, potentially pushing into 3rd place. Your hometown is listed on the ballot, and considering that a high number of voters won't know who they are voting for, he has the advantage of being the only candidate from the Wichita area and is from a more recognizable western town (Shultz is from a small western town).

No clue who will win this - Gossage seems to have the edge here in Douglas County, along with JoCo, but I'm not sure where she stands in the rest of the state. My inclination tells me that Shultz narrowly beats her. A bummer for Gossage, and she would probably win in a head-to-head race.

ANOTHER NOTE: I'm already guessing myself on saying Shultz will win...there has been no polling on this race, but Gossage has won most straw polls I know of, which is certainly a good sign when considering the primary electorate.