2012 Election Game: Campaign Thread

[tmthforu94]

7:30 PM Polls have now closed in Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina. We can call West Virginia for Senator Ayotte.

7:52 PM Obama made an early play for Georgia, and at one point in the summer lead there, but Ayotte/Christie have pulled through, taking the state by what looks to be around a 50-43-6 margin.

8:00 PM Polls have now closed in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.

We can immediately project that Senator Ayotte will carry Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. We can also project that President Obama will take Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

8:30 PM Polls have closed in Arkansas, and we can easily call it for Ayotte. Another impressive showing by Ventura, who garnered around 12% in the exit polls.

8:44 PM We are ready to make two projections. Senator Ayotte will carry Missouri, while President Obama will take Connecticut. Additionally, we can project that the President will win the first congressional district of Maine.

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There will not be an update today - I have several large assignments due tomorrow that I still need to complete. I will complete this on Friday and Saturday.

[tmthforu94]

I'm sorry guys - I am heavily involved with Student Senate elections right now so don't have a lot of free time. I'm going to get all of the results posted very soon, and it will follow with Congressional and Gubernatorial results.


9:00 PM Polls have now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

With new projections, here is where the current map stands.

Ayotte - 164
Obama - 95

9:12 PM At this time, we have enough data is several key states to make a projection...

President Barack Obama will carry New Jersey. Chris Christie's presence on the Republican turnout boosted GOP efforts here, but ultimately it was not enough to tip the Garden State. Obama is currently leading by a 48-42-9 margin.

Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry North Carolina. North Carolina swung to Obama in 2008 in an upset, and both side fought hard for the Tarheel state this time as well. Ultimately, the national mood shifted enough for Senator Ayotte, and she takes the state by roughly 4 points, 49-45-5.

President Obama will carry Michigan. Like New Jersey, this should not be much of a surprise to anyone, but it is alarming to the Democratic camp that it took this long to call. President Obama is currently leading 46-44-9.

Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry her homestate, New Hampshire. New Hampshire is typically a crucial piece to the puzzle in an election, though many expected it to fall into the GOP column tonight. A good sign for Ayotte that she was able to hold it - she currently is leading by a 45-39-13 margin. A strong showing for Ventura/Paul in the Granite State, though it appears the ticket was overpolling in the final days of the campaign as the numbers between Ayotte and Obama got closer and closer.

Arizona goes to Kelly Ayotte - we wanted to see a couple numbers come in before calling it, but at this point it looks certain that she will win. She leads President Obama 50-39-10.

Ayotte - 194
Obama - 125

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9:34 PM The night hasn't started off great for the Obama/Clinton campaign, with the Republicans looking to sweep the south despite Clinton's presence and also the closeness of the results in several Democratic strongholds. Despite that, the Obama campaign can breath a small sigh of relief - we can project that both Minnesota and New Mexico will stick with the President.

These were two states heavily contested by the Libertarian ticket of Ventura/Paul, and after some disappointing numbers out east, they have a reason to be happy. Numbers in Minnesota currently have President Obama leading with just 39%, following by 34% for Ayotte and 26% for Ventura. New Mexico also has the former wrestler and Governor pulling just over 20% of the vote.

9:39 PM A small victory for the Ayotte Campaign, but certainly one that Governor Chris Christie will be thrilled about - Maine's 2nd congressional district will be voting GOP tonight. Governor Christie invested a large amount of time in Maine, and while it remains uncertain whether they will win the state's at-large electors, it is certainly a relief to see that all that time wasn't completely wasted.

Fast forward to 11...

11:00 PM Polling is now closed in the lower 48 states! Based on exit polls, we can make some automatic projections. Here is where the election currently stands:

Not great news for Obama - we just don't feel comfortable calling Oregon or Washington for the President at this time, as his lead in the exit polls were not where we felt they needed to be.

11:09 PM Get ready folks, as we have a couple big projections coming your way.

First, we can finally project that the President will carry Wisconsin. Early on it was a back and forth battle, but President Obama appears to have taken a lead he will not be relinquishing. He currently leads 46-44-9.

Another huge projection for the President - at this point, we can project that he will also carry the critical state of Pennsylvania. Republicans made a strong play for Pennsylvania this year, and several polls even had the Ayotte/Christie ticket leading in the closing days. Ultimately it will stick with the Democrats, though it looks like a razor-thin margin. Based on where the outstanding precincts are, we are confident Obama will carry the state.

Pennsylvania (78% Reporting)
Obama/Clinton - 45.53%
Ayotte/Christie - 45.26%
Ventura/Paul - 8.67%

11:32 PM With the numbers that have come in, we can now project both Washington and Oregon for the President.

Obama-244
Ayotte-208

Ohio (85% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.43%
Obama/Clinton - 45.86%
Ventura/Paul - 7.53%

Florida (77% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 45.35%
Obama/Clinton - 44.24%
Ventura/Paul - 9.67%

Colorado (36% Reporting):
Obama/Clinton - 44.26%
Ayotte/Christie - 44.19%
Ventura/Paul - 10.98%

Virginia (90% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.43%
Obama/Clinton - 46.01%
Ventura/Paul - 6.98%

Iowa (51% Reporting):
Obama/Clinton - 45.34%
Ayotte/Christie - 44.12%
Ventura/Paul - 10.35%

Maine (95% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 43.36%
Obama/Clinton - 43.21%
Ventura/Paul - 14.67%

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12:00 PM It is now midnight, and polls have finally closed in Alaska, which we can immediately call for Ayotte/Christie.

12:25 PM We now have a HUGE projection to make, folks. After constant back and forths, with 99% of precincts now reporting, we can project that Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry the critical state of Ohio. No republican has won the White House without first carrying Ohio, and this is a huge win for the Ayotte campaign.

Ohio (99% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.21%
Obama/Clinton - 45.92%
Ventura/Paul - 7.47%

Based on current projections, it looks like Senator Ayotte may win the Popular Vote - she currently has a modest lead on President Obama. That was expected to close significantly with California, but while Obama leads there by a large amount, voter turnout isn't anywhere near 2008.

12:31 PM The results are almost certainly headed to a recount in Maine - all but one precinct has reported. That is a precinct in a rural community just north of Augusta in an area we would expect to be won by Ayotte/Christie. Trouble with the voting machines appear to be the problem, but with the current numbers, Ayotte/Christie will need every bit of help maintaining their narrow lead.

Maine (99% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 43.28% (Leads by 96 votes)
Obama/Clinton - 43.23%
Ventura/Paul - 14.67%

12:44 PM At this point, we are ready to project that Senator Ayotte will carry Florida. She has lead there almost all evening, but given past results, we wanted to wait until we were absolutely certain.

Ayotte - 260
Obama - 244

The Ayotte campaign can practically taste victory right now - a win in either Virginia or Colorado clinches it for Ayotte, though Christie's status as VP would be in question if only Colorado is carried due to only being at 269. A combination of both Nevada and Iowa would also clinch it.

Right now, Ayotte clings to a narrow lead in Virginia, though with some precincts reporting, we expect that to get even narrower. President Obama continues to narrowly lead in Nevada and Iowa, while Senator Ayotte has retaken the lead in Colorado.

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1:13 AM 99% of precincts are now reporting in Virginia...

Virginia (99% Reporting):
Ayotte/Christie - 46.48%
Obama/Clinton - 46.11%
Ventura/Paul - 6.86%

The margin is slim, and a recount is likely, but based on current numbers, we can project that Senator Kelly Ayotte will carry Virginia.

Kelly Ayotte has now crossed the 270-Electoral Vote threshold. We can now tentatively project that Senator Kelly Ayotte and Governor Chris Christie will be the next President and Vice President of the United States!

1:41 AM Nevada and Iowa are both called for President Obama.

2:13 AM Another recount is likely here, but Senator Ayotte is projected to carry Colorado, winning by .34%.

(Subject to Change)

Senator Kelly Ayotte/Governor Chris Christie - 282 Electoral Votes, 45.65% of Popular Vote
President Barack Obama/SoS Hillary Clinton - 256 Electoral Votes, 43.96% of Popular Vote
Governor Jesse Ventura/Congressman Ron Paul - 0 Electoral Votes, 10.32% of Popular Vote

[tmthforu94]

OOC: Both Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania were massively visited by Obama and Hillary during this campaign trail. Having just one of them going for us looks pretty strange but we will concede anyway... I feel like Jimmy Carter...

Congrats for Jerry, but especially to Lumine that basically carried the Republican Campaign in the end...

And you don't think Ayotte/Christie campaigned there? I don't think it's strange at all, especially considering all three have a slight Republican tilt in an even election. Obama disappeared from the trail multiple times - being an incumbent who is being perceived as a week later is practically "DOA" in American politics. Both campaigns were primarily pushed by the VP candidate, but Ayotte put in a bit more effort than Obama, and that was enough to give them the win.

[tmthforu94]

While a candidate's experience certainly plays a factor, it probably doesn't play to the level it would in this type of game because I want to reward activity as much as possible. Plus, it was barely hit on by the other sides in the campaign - we could have seen a different result had Ayotte's inexperience been a central issue of the campaign.

I know it sucks for you that Clinton1996 disappeared, but I can't let that factor into the results. You did very well, and Clinton may be set up nicely for a challenge in 2016. I don't know how this election could have been much closer outside of a 2000-type election. Every week I had a "final results" map - Ayotte did not lead that until a week before the election, and Virginia was back and forth the whole time. Had that flipped and if Maine changes in the recount, Obama would have won.

I'm currently working on Senate results.

[tmthforu94]

Congressional Results:
Unless a miracle occurs, the Democrats have lost the White House, and the Senate isn't looking much better. 9 states that Obama lead in during July were won by Ayotte tonight, and the effects downballot are not a good sign for Democrats.

Arizona - Congressman Jeff Flake defeats Richard Carmona and Marc Victor, winning with 52% of the vote.
California - Dianne Feinstein is easily re-elected, defeated Emken 58-42%.
Connecticut - Linda McMahon was closer than 2010, but not close enough. She loses to Congressman Chris Murphy 49-46%.
Delaware - Tom Carper is easily re-elected.
Florida - It wasn't comfortable, but Senator Bill Nelson will return to the Senate after defeating Connie Mack 53-45.
Hawaii - Mazie Hirono easily defeats former Governor Linda Lingle.
Indiana - State Senator Mike Delph is headed to the Senate, defeating Joe Donnelly 53-45.
Maine - Maine stays Republican with Senator Olympia Snowe winning with over 60%.
Maryland - Ben Cardin is easily re-elected.
Massachusetts - It turned out to be close, but the "Massachusetts Moderate" wins a full term to the Senate, ousting Tom Conroy 49-47.
Michigan - Debbie Stabenow is easily re-elected.
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar is easily re-elected.
Mississippi - Roger Wicker is easily re-elected.
Missouri - In an epic rematch, Jim Talent is returning to the Senate after defeating Claire McCaskill 51-48.
Montana - In a razor-thin battle, Senator Jon Tester finds a way to hang on despite a good year for Republicans, winning by less than 1%.
Nebraska - Deb Fischer is elected, defeating former Senator Bob Kerrey 58-41.
Nevada - Dean Heller wins a full term, defeating Shelley Berkley 50-45.
New Jersey - Bob Menendez is re-elected.
New Mexico - In an upset, Heather Wilson narrowly defeats Martin Heinrich, 48-47.
New York - Kirsten Gillibrand is easily re-elected.
North Dakota - Mike Berg narrowly survives a scare from Heidi Heitkamp, winning 51-48.
Ohio - Sherrod Brown narrowly survives a challenge from Josh Mandel, 49-46.
Pennsylvania - Bob Casey Jr. defeats Tom Smith, 53-46.
Rhode Island - Whitehouse is easily re-elected.
Tennessee- Corker is easily re-elected.
Texas - After surviving a primary scare, David Dewhurst wins here by 16 points.
Utah - Orrin Hatch is easily re-elected.
Vermont - Bernie Sanders is easily re-elected.
Virginia - By the narrowest of margins, Tim Kaine holds on in a rematch against George Allen.
Washington - Maria Cantwell wins re-election.
West Virginia - Joe Manchin wins re-election.
Wisconsin- Eric Hovde defeats Tammy Baldwin 51-48 for a GOP pickup.
Wyoming - John Barrasso is easily re-elected.

Someone correct me if my math is wrong, but with 4 GOP pickups, the Senate balance is now:
Republicans - 51
Democrats - 48
Independent - 1