People seem to be forgetting they're making maps based off the scenario:
With LePage up by 5 on Election, he'd widely be considered the favorite to win, so would probably win a majority of Independents. Somewhat of an electoral realignment. McCaskill may be from a Southern state, but that doesn't mean she'd do well in the South, especially when voters see her socially liberal record.
Map on Election Day:
Results:
LePage: 326 EV's
McCaskill: 212 EV's
Explanation: McCaskill isn't extremely popular in Missouri, and especially in a Republican year, it'll be very hard for her to win this state. I have McCaskill winning Iowa because I think it'd be a key focus from her campaign in the primaries, while LePage would probably skip Iowa and focus on New Hampshire.